{"id":1124,"date":"2026-05-22T08:31:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T08:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/my-market-analysis-amid-current-geopolitical-shocks\/"},"modified":"2026-05-22T08:31:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T08:31:03","slug":"my-market-analysis-amid-current-geopolitical-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/my-market-analysis-amid-current-geopolitical-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"My market analysis amid current geopolitical shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"my-market-analysis-amid-current-geopolitical-shocks\">My market analysis amid current geopolitical shocks<\/h1>\n<p>The trading week is ending with a fair amount of ambient tension. Iran is slamming the door on its uranium, oil is getting restless, and stock market indexes are giving us a rollercoaster ride. Honestly, this is the kind of setup that makes charts unpredictable. And that\u2019s exactly why you have to keep a cool head. In this article, I break down the stakes for the end of the week. We\u2019ll talk about Nvidia and the major decisions scheduled for this weekend.<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto; line-height: 0;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Iranian embargo: the story of Mark Rich, from the oil shock to Glencore\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_3rCJlKxwBOE\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3rCJlKxwBOE%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3rCJlKxwBOE\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT15M59S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-05-22T08:30:18Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_3rCJlKxwBOE\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3rCJlKxwBOE%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Iranian embargo: the story of Mark Rich, from the oil shock to Glencore<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Play the video\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/3rCJlKxwBOE\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3rCJlKxwBOE%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Iranian embargo: the story of Mark Rich, from the oil shock to Glencore\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Iranian embargo: I detail the story of Mark Rich, a trader who realized early during the 1973 oil shock that oil could be traded differently. I look back at the 1979 Iranian revolution, the clandestine purchase of crude oil despite the embargo, and the building of an empire that became Glencore. I also mention his flight from the US, his pardon by Bill Clinton, and the ultimate takeaway: &quot;great fortunes are often born in the gray areas of geopolitics.&quot; As a counterpoint, I cite the example of the Atlantic Wall and concrete. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/news\/ 30+ years of trading, 25+ years of teaching, a rare dual experience at your service. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Independent Trader \u2022 CME &amp; CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator. In the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-dynamics-driving-our-indexes\">The dynamics driving our indexes<\/h2>\n<p>To put it simply, there are mainly three elements to keep an eye on today.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Digesting Nvidia\u2019s results<\/strong>: The numbers are excellent, but not exceptional. Asia loved it, propelling the Nikkei in Tokyo. On the other hand, the United States didn\u2019t really jump for joy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The infernal triangle (Iran, Oil, Rates)<\/strong>: This is the basic mechanism right now. Iran makes an announcement about the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the price of oil climbs toward $104. And since oil is everywhere, inflation goes up. In short, this pushes US rates (bond yields) to remain very high, around 4.60%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Indexes in high spirits<\/strong>: The Dow Jones is doing great, soaring above 50,000 points. The CAC 40 crosses the 8,000-point mark, a very nice signal. In fact, the markets sense that we are getting closer to a potential diplomatic agreement.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 id=\"the-historical-anecdote-making-a-fortune-in-the-shadows\">The historical anecdote: making a fortune in the shadows<\/h2>\n<p>To illustrate how geopolitics creates opportunities, let\u2019s take a leap back in time. In 1979, during the Iranian revolution, a young trader named Mark Rich smelled a goldmine. He clandestinely bought Iranian crude. Then, he sold it back to the whole world despite the embargo at the time.<\/p>\n<p>These risky moves allowed him to build Glencore. It\u2019s one of the largest commodity trading houses in the world. By the way, the greatest fortunes are often born in these gray areas of history, where others hesitate.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"watch-out-for-last-minute-surprises\">Watch out for last-minute surprises<\/h2>\n<p>However, I\u2019d rather slip you a little warning. History proves that decisive announcements always drop on the weekend. This is simply because the stock markets are closed.<\/p>\n<p>Donald Trump might just take advantage of this weekend to force a deal without hurting the markets. We also note the presence of the Pakistani army chief in Iran. That\u2019s a strong sign. Honestly, Donald Trump often yells loudly, but he doesn\u2019t like war. He avoids it even to preserve his karma, based on my impression. His goal remains to strategically make his opponents fold.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In summary, the stock market dynamic is positive but rests on a fragile geopolitical balance. Smaller indexes like the Russell 2000 (American small caps) are finally breathing. On the other hand, let\u2019s stay very cautious. Volatility will likely show up on Monday at the open. Actually, I have to let you go, I\u2019m already a bit late to join my students live. Take care and stay curious!<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"tiers-clic tiers-ausha\" data-tiers-js=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><template class=\"tiers-src\"><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A3nOvHk1pgeM&#038;color=%23751CBF&#038;display=horizontal&#038;multishow=false&#038;playlist=true&#038;dark=false&#038;v=3&#038;playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><\/template><p class=\"tiers-avis\">By starting the player, you accept Ausha&#039;s cookies.<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"tiers-btn\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M8 5.5v13l11-6.5z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/><\/svg><span>Listen to the episode<\/span><\/button><\/div><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>By starting the video, you accept YouTube&#039;s cookies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My market analysis amid current geopolitical shocks The trading week is ending with a fair amount of ambient tension. Iran is slamming the door on its\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>My market analysis amid current geopolitical shocks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover my latest market analysis amid the growing tensions in Iran. 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