{"id":1145,"date":"2026-06-30T08:01:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/rising-markets-review-of-a-record-half-year-and-caution\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T08:01:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:01:31","slug":"rising-markets-review-of-a-record-half-year-and-caution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/rising-markets-review-of-a-record-half-year-and-caution\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Markets: Review of a Record Half-Year and Caution"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"rising-markets-review-of-a-record-half-year-and-caution\">Rising Markets: Review of a Record Half-Year and Caution<\/h1>\n<p>What a day on Wall Street yesterday! A fantastic rally, soaring indices, and I received a lot of messages from students happy with their results. On my end, a short 20-minute session was enough to make my month. It\u2019s a sign of a dynamic market, but also, as this first half of 2026 comes to a close, it\u2019s time to take stock. Because while the euphoria is here, we must remain cautious and remember the lessons of history. We\u2019ll look at that together.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Wall Street: The Story of RCA &amp;amp; a Useful Reminder on Stock Market Bubbles\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_1xgcTLpWeZA\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F1xgcTLpWeZA%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1xgcTLpWeZA\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT23M51S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-06-30T08:00:22Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_1xgcTLpWeZA\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F1xgcTLpWeZA%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Wall Street: The Story of RCA &amp; a Useful Reminder on Stock Market Bubbles<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Play the video\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/1xgcTLpWeZA\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F1xgcTLpWeZA%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Wall Street: The Story of RCA &amp;amp; a Useful Reminder on Stock Market Bubbles\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Wall Street and stock market bubbles: I start with the day&#039;s session, then I tell the story of RCA in the 1920s, carried by the radio boom before the 1929 collapse. The parallel remains measured: a mythical stock can embody all hopes, then fall brutally. I also recalled my memory of Alcatel during the 2000 internet bubble, with the same mechanics of valuation, euphoria, and a return to reality. Honestly, this historical detour served to read the present without blindness. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/news\/ 30+ years of trading, 25+ years of teaching, a rare dual experience at your service. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Independent Trader \u2022 CME &amp; CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator. In the TRADING series, drawing on over 30 years of experience on CME futures, he shares market session analysis, commented trade replays, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation. Content dubbed from French source via HeyGen.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"an-euphoric-day-for-a-record-half-year\">An Euphoric Day for a Record Half-Year<\/h2>\n<p>Yesterday, the US market really reacted. We saw a big general rise, a bit linear, but very clear. The Dow Jones, for example, broke through 52,000 points and, importantly, closed above it. That makes all the difference. When an index crosses a threshold but closes well below it, it doesn\u2019t really have much value. Here, it\u2019s a strong signal.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq soared by almost 2%, and the S&amp;P 500 gained over 1%. We saw heavyweights like Alphabet (which joined the Dow Jones yesterday) gain almost 5%, and Tesla soar by 8.5%. It was one of those days where you feel carried by the current.<\/p>\n<p>This day marks the end of a record first half, despite quite a few storms like the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The S&amp;P 500 has gained nearly 8% since January, largely thanks to artificial intelligence. It\u2019s in this context that fund managers do what is called &quot;portfolio window dressing.&quot; Basically, they sell some stocks to take profits and buy new gems for the next half-year. This can create some odd movements and volatility.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"key-issues-to-watch\">Key Issues to Watch<\/h2>\n<p>For the coming days, three things in particular will set the pace for the markets:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>End-of-half-year review<\/strong>: As I was saying, this is when managers adjust their positions, which can lead to volatility in certain stocks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Fed\u2019s speech<\/strong>: We\u2019re waiting to see what Kevin Warsh will say. The Fed seems to want to raise rates, which not everyone is happy about and could create tensions, especially in real estate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The US jobs report<\/strong>: This is the big event on Thursday. This monthly figure can be explosive, one way or the other, depending on its impact on inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 id=\"the-vix-is-down-a-suspicious-calm\">The VIX is Down: A Suspicious Calm?<\/h2>\n<p>The VIX, for those who don\u2019t know, is nicknamed the &quot;fear index.&quot; It measures, in a way, the price of insurance on the markets. The higher it is, the riskier things are perceived to be. Yesterday, the VIX fell to 17.65, a drop of more than 4%. In short, calm has returned.<\/p>\n<p>However, in my view, it\u2019s a calm that\u2019s almost too good to be true. With the jobs report coming on Thursday and a shorter trading week (Wall Street is closed on Friday), the situation can change very quickly. Is yesterday\u2019s rebound a true bottom or just a trap before another drop? That is the question.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-lesson-from-history-from-rca-to-alcatel\">The Lesson from History: From RCA to Alcatel<\/h2>\n<p>History repeats itself, and it\u2019s our best compass. In the 1920s, the great revolution was the radio, and one company embodied that future: RCA. It was the Nvidia of its time. Everyone was scrambling for its shares; people went into debt to buy them. Then the crash of 1929 came, and the stock collapsed by 98%.<\/p>\n<p>I myself lived through the dot-com bubble of 2000. I remember Alcatel, the European tech flagship. The stock was at 100 euros, and analysts predicted it would hit 300. Three months later, after the bubble burst, the stock was worth less than 2 euros. We used to joke that you couldn\u2019t even buy a Big Mac with it.<\/p>\n<p>This &quot;irrational exuberance,&quot; as Alan Greenspan called it, is exhilarating, but it should urge us to be extremely cautious. Even the best stories can have bad endings.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"my-quick-analysis-of-the-indices\">My Quick Analysis of the Indices<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Dow Jones<\/strong>: Very positive as long as it stays above 52,000 points. It even seems a bit less risky than the Nasdaq right now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nasdaq<\/strong>: It bounced back well and broke a downward trendline. This is a strong recovery signal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>: It\u2019s rising, but more cautiously. It still needs to break through a resistance zone to be truly reassuring.<\/li>\n<li><strong>CAC 40 and DAX<\/strong>: Meh. Not much to say, there\u2019s no drive. A bit like Madame Bovary\u2019s husband.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bitcoin, Gold, and Oil<\/strong>: Contrary to what some say, not everything is going down. Global indices are rising! It\u2019s mainly commodities and Bitcoin that are struggling at the moment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We\u2019re ending this half-year on a very positive note, with markets showing defiant health. It\u2019s great, and we should enjoy it. But this euphoria shouldn\u2019t blind us. Between the Fed\u2019s decisions, the employment figures, and the lessons of the past, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious. Let\u2019s keep a cool head, enjoy these moments, but never forget that trees don\u2019t grow to the sky.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME &#038; CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an experienced educator. With over 30 years of experience on CME futures, in the TRADING series he shares market session analysis, commented trade replays, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"tiers-clic tiers-ausha\" data-tiers-js=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><template class=\"tiers-src\"><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A8WwwHLGM7P5&#038;color=%23751CBF&#038;display=horizontal&#038;multishow=false&#038;playlist=true&#038;dark=false&#038;v=3&#038;playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><\/template><p class=\"tiers-avis\">By starting the player, you accept Ausha&#039;s cookies.<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"tiers-btn\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M8 5.5v13l11-6.5z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/><\/svg><span>Listen to the episode<\/span><\/button><\/div><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>By starting the video, you accept YouTube&#039;s cookies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rising Markets: Review of a Record Half-Year and Caution What a day on Wall Street yesterday! A fantastic rally, soaring indices, and I received a lot\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1144,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rising Markets: Review of a Record Half-Year and Caution<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysis of a record half-year for the stock market. 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