{"id":1148,"date":"2026-07-01T06:52:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T06:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/why-a-good-jobs-report-can-scare-the-markets\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T06:52:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T06:52:41","slug":"why-a-good-jobs-report-can-scare-the-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/why-a-good-jobs-report-can-scare-the-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"why-a-good-jobs-report-can-scare-the-markets\">Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Markets<\/h1>\n<p>Wall Street just wrapped up a first half of the year with all-time highs, but a slightly strange question is set to dominate this week: what if good news for jobs scares the financial world? Right now, the usual logic is completely flipped. Everyone is waiting for the big U.S. jobs report on Thursday, and the mood is tense. I\u2019m going to explain why this number is so important and how a positive situation can paradoxically become a risk for the markets.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"US Employment: Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Stock Market\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_TDqmH7x95gM\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FTDqmH7x95gM%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/TDqmH7x95gM\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT25M29S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-07-01T06:51:41Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_TDqmH7x95gM\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FTDqmH7x95gM%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">US Employment: Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Stock Market<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Play the video\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/TDqmH7x95gM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FTDqmH7x95gM%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"US Employment: Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Stock Market\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"US employment, the jobs report, and the Fed are dominating this session. I&#039;m revisiting the current counter-intuitive logic: a labor market that&#039;s too strong can worry Wall Street, as it revives inflation risks, rate hikes, and pressure on stocks. I also discuss the surprising calm in the bond market via the MOVE index, the records set by the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500, and the key levels to watch for the CAC 40, DAX, Dow Jones, Bitcoin, and oil. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/news\/ 30+ years of trading, 25+ years of teaching, a rare dual experience at your service. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Independent Trader \u2022 CME &amp; CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator. In the TRADING series, drawing on over 30 years of experience on CME futures, he shares market session analysis, commented trade replays, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation. Content dubbed from French source via HeyGen.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"a-historic-semester-but-personal-regrets\">A Historic Semester, But Personal Regrets<\/h2>\n<p>The quarter ended on a high note, especially on Wall Street. The S&amp;P 500 gained 14% and the Nasdaq nearly 20%, driven by powerhouses like Nvidia or AMD. Just yesterday, the Nasdaq jumped 1.52%. I hope you capitalized on it better than I did.<br \/>Frankly, I ended the day in the green, but it could have been much better. Fatigue made me stick to my usual routine, when I should have been a bit more aggressive on a day like this. In short, whether the index gained 1.5% or 0.2%, I would have had the same score. A bit disappointed, yes, but you also have to know when to rest.<\/p>\n<p>In Europe, it was a little less euphoric, even though the DAX and the Euro Stoxx performed well, catching up a bit.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-move-index-an-indicator-to-keep-an-eye-on\">The MOVE Index, an Indicator to Keep an Eye On<\/h2>\n<p>I\u2019d like to tell you about a tool you may not be familiar with: the MOVE index. It\u2019s the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate. Basically, it measures nervousness in the bond market. It\u2019s an excellent complement to the more well-known VIX index.<\/p>\n<p>Why am I talking about it today? Because we\u2019re experiencing a surprising calm, at a 5-year low. The index is hovering around 68-70. To put it simply, the rule is as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Below 80<\/strong>: the bond market is sleeping soundly. Hibernation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Above 120<\/strong>: it\u2019s a storm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The MOVE index has been very good at signaling previous periods of turbulence, like Covid or the invasion of Ukraine. Today, it\u2019s very low. Maybe a little too calm right before the jobs report is released&#8230; Perhaps that\u2019s the trap. If this market wakes up, it could seriously shake up stocks.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-jobs-paradox-when-good-news-is-bad-news\">The Jobs Paradox: When Good News is Bad News<\/h2>\n<p>Usually, strong employment is good news: more hiring, higher wages, leading to more consumption and growth. But this time, the logic is completely reversed. The FED is threatening to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>The reasoning is as follows: if the job market is 'too hot,' it fuels inflation. Why? Because people who find a job start spending. To fight inflation, the FED has only one effective macroeconomic tool: raising its rates. This discourages investment and consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Uncontrolled inflation is dangerous. I like the image of Cronus, the ogre who devours his own children. If we let inflation soar, the first to suffer are the employees. Raising wages too quickly and too broadly is counterproductive. We saw it in France in 1981: a 10% wage increase was followed by a 12 to 13% price increase six months later. Purchasing power decreased.<\/p>\n<p>This is why central banks watch inflation like a hawk. They aim for about 3%, a level considered dynamic for the economy, a bit like exercising gently but regularly: it\u2019s beneficial in the long run.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-scenarios-for-the-week\">The Scenarios for the Week<\/h2>\n<p>What could happen on Thursday?<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>The ideal scenario<\/strong>: a moderate job creation number. In this case, &quot;the party continues.&quot;<\/li>\n<li><strong>The grim scenario<\/strong>: a &quot;scorching&quot; number, with 200,000 or 250,000 jobs created. In that case, the stock market might think, &quot;Uh-oh, the FED is going to raise rates!&quot;, and equity markets could take a hit.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Not everyone agrees. Economists at Wells Fargo think the market is stabilizing. But the market itself is largely leaning towards one or two rate hikes before the end of the year.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"a-little-anecdote-about-the-origin-of-this-famous-report\">A Little Anecdote About the Origin of This Famous Report<\/h2>\n<p>This jobs report hasn\u2019t always existed. It was born out of the trauma of the Great Depression in the 1930s. After the 1929 crisis, people figured it might be useful to know how many jobs were being created or destroyed. Before that, the unemployed were counted haphazardly. It was following this great misfortune that modern economics really developed with people like Keynes or Hayek. It just goes to show, you can always learn lessons from crises.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, I invite you to read American reports, especially those from the FED. They are surprisingly educational. They\u2019re simple, clear, and anyone can understand them. The complete opposite of the ECB reports, which seem to be written specifically to make you feel completely stupid&#8230;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>To conclude, caution is advised this week. Good economic news can quickly become bad news for the markets. We\u2019re keeping an eye on today\u2019s ADP survey, which will give us a first clue. Be careful, enjoy your day, and we\u2019ll meet again tomorrow to analyze what comes next.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME &#038; CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an experienced educator. With over 30 years of experience on CME futures, in the TRADING series he shares market session analysis, commented trade replays, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"tiers-clic tiers-ausha\" data-tiers-js=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><template class=\"tiers-src\"><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A8WwwHLGM7P5&#038;color=%23751CBF&#038;display=horizontal&#038;multishow=false&#038;playlist=true&#038;dark=false&#038;v=3&#038;playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><\/template><p class=\"tiers-avis\">By starting the player, you accept Ausha&#039;s cookies.<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"tiers-btn\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M8 5.5v13l11-6.5z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/><\/svg><span>Listen to the episode<\/span><\/button><\/div><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>By starting the video, you accept YouTube&#039;s cookies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Markets Wall Street just wrapped up a first half of the year with all-time highs, but a slightly\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1147,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why a Good Jobs Report Can Scare the Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Find out why a good U.S. jobs report can scare the financial markets. 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