{"id":1151,"date":"2026-07-02T05:48:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T05:48:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/the-jobs-report-3-key-issues-that-will-shape-the-day\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T05:48:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T05:48:47","slug":"the-jobs-report-3-key-issues-that-will-shape-the-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/the-jobs-report-3-key-issues-that-will-shape-the-day\/","title":{"rendered":"The Jobs Report: 3 Key Issues That Will Shape the Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"the-jobs-report-3-key-issues-that-will-shape-the-day\">The Jobs Report: 3 Key Issues That Will Shape the Day<\/h1>\n<p>Hello everyone, and welcome. Today, Thursday, July 2, 2026, everything hinges on 2:30 PM. The US jobs report is finally out, and for once, a good number could seriously spook the markets. We\u2019re going to break down the three major issues that will shape our trading session.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_lYVQcG-zDXg\"><div id=\"lyte_lYVQcG-zDXg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FlYVQcG-zDXg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Play the video\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/lYVQcG-zDXg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FlYVQcG-zDXg%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video thumbnail\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-3-major-issues-to-watch\">The 3 Major Issues to Watch<\/h2>\n<p>To put it simply, the day revolves around three hot topics:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>The jobs number (NFP)<\/strong> and, most importantly, the market\u2019s interpretation of it.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The semiconductor rout<\/strong> in Asia, which calls for extreme caution.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The yield curve<\/strong>, which will be our barometer for anticipating a potential recession.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 id=\"the-semiconductor-rout-a-warning-sign\">The Semiconductor Rout: A Warning Sign?<\/h2>\n<p>Yesterday, Wall Street closed a record first half, but the session stalled. Chip stocks plunged, dragging the Nasdaq down by 0.66% while the Dow Jones remained stable. We\u2019re seeing big moves, with stocks like Micron collapsing by more than 10%, and conversely, Meta jumping nearly 9%.<\/p>\n<p>Why did Meta surge? Simply because its CEO announced they would sell their excess AI-related computing capacity. Basically, they\u2019re going to create a cloud to rent out the power of their servers that they don\u2019t use constantly. It\u2019s pure optimization, a bit like renting out your house on Airbnb during your vacation. The markets love it.<\/p>\n<p>But overnight, the semiconductor sector took a huge hit in Asia. The Nasdaq lost all its gains starting at 2 AM. Samsung, for example, dropped 9% in Korea. It\u2019s unsettling, and for Nasdaq traders like me, it\u2019s a warning that we need to be very, very cautious.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-yield-curve-our-recession-barometer\">The Yield Curve: Our Recession Barometer<\/h2>\n<p>The second point to watch is the yield curve. I remind you that it compares the 2-year and 10-year US borrowing rates. Normally, lending over a long period should yield much more. However, right now, we have a contraction: the 2-year pays 4.18% and the 10-year only 4.48%. The spread is 0.30 points, which is very narrow.<\/p>\n<p>My advice would be to lend at 2 years. It\u2019s better to pocket 4.18% for 2 years and get your money back, rather than locking it up for 10 years for barely more. You\u2019re tying up your money for 8 extra years for very little.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, when this spread tightens so much, it\u2019s often a harbinger of a recession. It might sound crazy amidst the AI euphoria, but the signals are contradictory. And precisely, if the jobs number is too strong, the central bank might raise rates, which would bring the 2-year rate even closer to the 10-year rate.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-jobs-report-nfp-the-crucial-event\">The Jobs Report (NFP): The Crucial Event<\/h2>\n<p>We\u2019ve been waiting for it for four days. The jobs report, known as NFP in the United States, is released at 2:30 PM, Paris time. It represents the number of jobs created last month. The consensus expects around 115,000 job creations.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the paradox: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>A number above expectations<\/strong> could be worrisome, as it would mean the economy is doing &quot;too well,&quot; prompting the central bank to raise rates to cool things down.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A number below expectations<\/strong> could relieve the markets, which would assume the Fed won\u2019t touch rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The real issue, therefore, isn\u2019t the number itself, but the expected reaction from the central bank, whose chair already considers prices too high. The ideal scenario? A number that\u2019s not too hot, not too cold. Lukewarm isn\u2019t so bad on the stock market.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"technical-analysis-caution-is-key\">Technical Analysis: Caution is Key<\/h2>\n<p>On the Nasdaq, the message is clear: caution, caution, caution. Wait for 2:30 PM. Before the announcement, you\u2019ll see the order book completely empty out. Those who remain are casino players, not traders. High volatility is possible.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is a bit less exposed and remains at its highs. As for the Dow Jones, it continues to break records, quietly. And the CAC 40? It\u2019s way down, true to form. It could almost be the start of a song: &quot;CAC 40 way down low and DAX way up high.&quot;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"anecdote-of-the-day-the-power-of-the-bond-market\">Anecdote of the Day: The Power of the Bond Market<\/h2>\n<p>To finish, an anecdote that sheds light on our day. In the 90s, James Carville, Bill Clinton\u2019s advisor, dropped this somewhat odd line: he dreamed of being reincarnated as the bond market, because it &quot;can intimidate everybody.&quot;<\/p>\n<p>Thirty years later, nothing has changed. It\u2019s still this very discreet market that calls the shots. That\u2019s why I encourage you to get used to watching the spread between the US 2-year and 10-year. If jobs data is too strong today, you\u2019ll hear the bond market grumble, and you\u2019ll think of good old James Carville.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>That\u2019s all for today. There\u2019s not much else to add. The ending is a bit abrupt, but since this is live and I never re-edit my videos, I prefer to keep that authenticity. So, be careful, and we\u2019ll see each other tomorrow, even though it\u2019s an American holiday. The resistance is organizing! Much love, and take care.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME &#038; CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an experienced educator. With over 30 years of experience on CME futures, in the TRADING series he shares market session analysis, commented trade replays, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"tiers-clic tiers-ausha\" data-tiers-js=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><template class=\"tiers-src\"><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A8WwwHLGM7P5&#038;color=%23751CBF&#038;display=horizontal&#038;multishow=false&#038;playlist=true&#038;dark=false&#038;v=3&#038;playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><\/template><p class=\"tiers-avis\">By starting the player, you accept Ausha&#039;s cookies.<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"tiers-btn\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M8 5.5v13l11-6.5z\" fill=\"currentColor\"\/><\/svg><span>Listen to the episode<\/span><\/button><\/div><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>By starting the video, you accept YouTube&#039;s cookies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Jobs Report: 3 Key Issues That Will Shape the Day Hello everyone, and welcome. Today, Thursday, July 2, 2026, everything hinges on 2:30 PM. The\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Jobs Report: 3 Key Issues That Will Shape the Day<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today, all eyes are on the US jobs report. 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