{"id":1153,"date":"2026-07-07T09:09:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T09:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wall-street-hits-new-highs-why-caution-is-still-warranted\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T09:09:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T09:09:51","slug":"wall-street-hits-new-highs-why-caution-is-still-warranted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wall-street-hits-new-highs-why-caution-is-still-warranted\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street Hits New Highs: Why Caution Is Still Warranted"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"wall-street-hits-new-highs-why-caution-is-still-warranted\">Wall Street Hits New Highs: Why Caution Is Still Warranted<\/h1>\n<p>Wall Street is on a record-breaking streak, but this euphoria could be put to the test. This week is crucial as it marks the beginning of the major corporate earnings season. Expectations are huge, and the market can&#39;t afford any missteps. In this article, I&#39;ll explain the three key issues to watch, why the current calm in the credit market seems deceptive to me, and why, despite the highs, I believe caution is our best ally.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper fourthree\" title=\"Earnings Season: After Records, Wall Street Faces the Test\" style=\"width:420px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_78SYEBHbGAI\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/78SYEBHbGAI\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/78SYEBHbGAI\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT21M7S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-07-07T09:09:11Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_78SYEBHbGAI\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/78SYEBHbGAI\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Earnings Season: After Records, Wall Street Faces the Test<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/78SYEBHbGAI\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/78SYEBHbGAI\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Earnings Season: After Records, Wall Street Faces the Test\" width=\"420\" height=\"295\" \/><br \/>Lire cette vid\u00e9o sur YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"It&#039;s earnings season, the moment of truth for Wall Street after hitting record highs. This is where company profits take center stage, as we move from promises to opening the books. I walk through the session&#039;s action: the Dow Jones at its peak, a more hesitant Nasdaq, very high earnings expectations, rock-bottom credit spreads, and the Fed minutes in the background. Ultimately, markets have been riding on momentum, but the real test is in the profits, dividends, and the actual strength of companies. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/news\/ 30+ years of trading, 25+ years of teaching, a rare dual experience at your service. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Independent Trader \u2022 CME & CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an adult education expert. In the TRADING series, drawing on over 30 years of experience trading CME futures, he shares session analyses, trade replays with commentary, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation. \ud83c\udf99\ufe0f AI-dubbed version \u2014 the original video was recorded in French. The voice (an AI clone of my own) and lip movements were adapted with AI technology to make this content available in English.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:420px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n<p>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click <\/p>\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/js\/platform.js\"><\/script><span class=\"g-ytsubscribe\" data-channelid=\"UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ\" data-layout=\"default\" data-count=\"hidden\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 5px;\"><\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"a-quick-word-before-we-start\">A quick word before we start<\/h2>\n<p>Before diving into the analysis, I just wanted to take a moment to thank Antoine for sending me a magnificent painting. I&#39;m very touched! He has a great sense of proportion, a great sense of proportion, depicting me as a big green Shrek next to his father. I think I&#39;ll remove the Kandinsky from my bookshelf to hang this piece of contemporary neo-realist art. Joking aside (though if you have a spare Picasso from his Blue Period, feel free to send it my way), let&#39;s get down to business.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"earnings-season-are-expectations-overblown\">Earnings Season: Are Expectations Overblown?<\/h2>\n<p>This is the heart of the matter. Earnings season is kicking off, and analysts expect a profit increase of over 20% for U.S. stocks. That&#39;s huge. The market is already trading at a very high valuation, which means that any disappointment, no matter how small, could be costly.<\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones hit an all-time high yesterday, right as we enter this period. If a company announces an increase of &#39;only&#39; 19%, it could be punished. Even an excellent result doesn&#39;t guarantee a positive stock market reaction. As enthusiasts know, you always need a little more. By the way, this reminds me of a little riddle: how did a company manage to beat analyst expectations, by just one cent, for 20 years? We&#39;ll come back to that.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"credit-a-barometer-of-confidence-or-complacency\">Credit, a Barometer of Confidence (or Complacency?)<\/h2>\n<p>For me, the key barometer of the day is the credit market. Let&#39;s look at high-yield spreads. Basically, this is the rate paid by companies deemed fragile to borrow money. The lower this rate, the more confident the market is about the future.<\/p>\n<p>Today, this rate is around 2.75%. It&#39;s ridiculous. We&#39;re lending money to &#39;lame ducks&#39; for next to nothing. To give you an idea, this same rate climbed to 11% during the COVID pandemic and approached 20% in 2008. Currently, there&#39;s so much money that everything is getting funded, perhaps even indiscriminately. It reminds me a bit of the dot-com bubble. We know there&#39;s a bubble, but like an inflating balloon, we never know when it&#39;s going to pop.<\/p>\n<p>For now, the market sees no danger. But the slightest tension on this front could be a real warning sign.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"technical-analysis-a-sector-rotation-on-the-horizon\">Technical Analysis: A Sector Rotation on the Horizon?<\/h2>\n<p>When we look at the indexes, we see some interesting dynamics:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The Dow Jones<\/strong>: It&#39;s at its all-time highs and holding steady. This is a sign of strength. We can feel that investors are turning to &#39;solid&#39; companies like PepsiCo.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Nasdaq<\/strong>: Conversely, it has been stagnating for two months and is hovering near its recent lows. Doubt is creeping into the tech sector. We may have gotten ahead of ourselves, and now the results need to follow.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The S&P 500<\/strong>: It is advancing, but not with the same vigor as the Dow Jones, held back by its significant tech component.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, we are observing the beginnings of a rotation: investors seem to be slowly taking profits from tech to reposition themselves in more traditional stocks. Everything now hinges on the results of giants like Nvidia or Meta. If they disappoint, we&#39;re going to feel it.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"what-about-other-assets\">What about other assets?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Oil<\/strong> is holding around $70, a zone that seems to suit everyone (the &#39;gentleman&#39;s agreement&#39;).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> has rebounded above 60,000 points, which is positive, but it remains far from its highs after losing nearly 35% in two months.<\/li>\n<li>In Europe, the <strong>CAC 40<\/strong> and the <strong>DAX<\/strong> are also at their peaks, showing that the trend is global.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"the-historical-anecdote-when-everything-is-too-perfect\">The Historical Anecdote: When Everything Is Too Perfect<\/h2>\n<p>Let&#39;s return to our riddle. In the 1990s, General Electric, under its iconic CEO Jack Welch, impressed everyone. Every quarter, the company would beat analyst expectations, often by just a single cent. A mechanism a little too good to be true...<\/p>\n<p>After the CEO&#39;s departure, doubts arose. The securities regulator investigated and, in 2009, General Electric paid a fine to quietly close the case. The moral of the story? An earnings per share figure that&#39;s a little too perfect always warrants a degree of skepticism.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>If I had to sum up the situation in one word, it would be: <strong>caution<\/strong>. Records are nice, even extraordinary, but they remain fragile as long as the proof is lacking. And the proof is in the companies&#39; balance sheets. We&#39;re reaching the moment of truth, the time to say: &#39;Show me the numbers!&#39;.<\/p>\n<p>The credit market is reassuringly calm, suggesting that very smart people see no risk. But even the brightest can be wrong. We are leaving the world of imagination and entering the realm of reality. The real test is now.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME & CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an adult education expert. With over 30 years of experience trading CME futures, in the TRADING series he shares session analyses, trade replays with commentary, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A8WwwHLGM7P5&color=%23751CBF&display=horizontal&multishow=false&playlist=true&dark=false&v=3&playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><script src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street Hits New Highs: Why Caution Is Still Warranted Wall Street is on a record-breaking streak, but this euphoria could be put to the test. This week is crucial as it marks the beginning of the major corporate earnings season. Expectations are huge, and the market can&#39;t afford any missteps. In this article, I&#39;ll [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Wall Street Hits New Highs: Why Caution Is Still Warranted<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite Wall Street&#039;s record highs, caution is advised. 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