{"id":1161,"date":"2026-09-16T07:11:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/the-fed-why-the-rate-hike-isnt-the-real-story\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T07:11:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:11:09","slug":"the-fed-why-the-rate-hike-isnt-the-real-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/the-fed-why-the-rate-hike-isnt-the-real-story\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed: Why the Rate Hike Isn&rsquo;t the Real Story"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"the-fed-why-the-rate-hike-isnt-the-real-story\">The Fed: Why the Rate Hike Isn&#39;t the Real Story<\/h1>\n<p>This Wednesday, September 16, 2026, the markets&#39; attention is fixated on the Fed. A rate hike seems inevitable, but it&#39;s a mistake to focus solely on that. In reality, the market has already priced in this information. The real question, the one that will dictate future movements, will be addressed much later, during the press conference. This is a pivotal moment. It&#39;s also an intense period for me, as I&#39;m finalizing the launch of a colossal project I&#39;ve been working on for a year: about thirty new YouTube channels on topics like history, economics, and philosophy, all in six languages. But for now, let&#39;s focus on what&#39;s at stake tonight.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper fourthree\" title=\"Fed and Markets: The Rate Hike Seems Priced In, the Real Risk is at 8:30 PM\" style=\"width:420px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_LmW5kIQoEyc\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/LmW5kIQoEyc\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LmW5kIQoEyc\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT16M19S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-09-16T07:10:03Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_LmW5kIQoEyc\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/LmW5kIQoEyc\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Fed and Markets: The Rate Hike Seems Priced In, the Real Risk is at 8:30 PM<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/LmW5kIQoEyc\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/LmW5kIQoEyc\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Fed and Markets: The Rate Hike Seems Priced In, the Real Risk is at 8:30 PM\" width=\"420\" height=\"295\" \/><br \/>Lire cette vid\u00e9o sur YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"AI \u2014 Dubbed version. The voice and lip sync were generated by artificial intelligence from the original French recording. The script, the statements and the analysis are Benoist Rousseau\u2019s own. Fed and markets, rate hikes, and oil are the heart of this morning&#039;s update. I explain why the Fed&#039;s decision seems already largely priced in by the market, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point hike, and why the real risk lies mainly in the 8:30 PM speech. I also cover WTI above &#36;104, the 10-year US yield above 5%, the pressure on Wall Street, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and how inflation remains central to the game. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/news\/ 30+ years of trading, 25+ years of teaching, a rare dual experience at your service. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau-trading.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Independent Trader \u2022 CME & CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an adult education expert. In the TRADING series, drawing on over 30 years of experience trading CME futures, he shares session analyses, trade replays with commentary, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:420px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n<p>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click <\/p>\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/js\/platform.js\"><\/script><span class=\"g-ytsubscribe\" data-channelid=\"UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ\" data-layout=\"default\" data-count=\"hidden\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 5px;\"><\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"an-already-pressured-market-context\">An Already Pressured Market Context<\/h2>\n<p>For the past week, everything has revolved around oil and interest rates. Wall Street has logically retreated, with average losses of around 0.6% to 0.7% for the main indices. The pressure is mainly coming from the 10-year US Treasury rate, which surpassed 5% during the session. This is a high we haven&#39;t seen in nearly 20 years. In concrete terms, this means the United States is borrowing at a much higher cost, which has direct repercussions, particularly on real estate. Obviously, it&#39;s harder to finance a first home purchase when rates are at this level.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-oil-equation-and-its-impact-on-inflation\">The Oil Equation and Its Impact on Inflation<\/h2>\n<p>Oil is adding its own tension. With traffic nearly at a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and a backup Saudi pipeline recently cut off, prices are soaring. A barrel, whether it&#39;s WTI or Brent, is trading above $104-105. This is excellent news for producer countries, but very bad news for consumers and inflation. Consequently, it puts additional pressure on the Fed to act more firmly. The psychological threshold is really $100. As long as we stay above it, the mood won&#39;t be calm.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, a nuance should be added regarding the impact of this shutdown pipeline. Its theoretical capacity is 7 million barrels per day, but in practice, due to logistical limitations at the destination port, the actual flow was closer to 3 to 4 million. The loss is therefore significant, but less catastrophic than the raw numbers might suggest.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-fed-3-points-that-really-matter-tonight\">The Fed: 3 Points That Really Matter Tonight<\/h2>\n<p>The quarter-point hike is expected by 90% of investors. It is therefore, as they say, already &quot;priced in.&quot; Tonight, it&#39;s not the 8 PM decision that will move the market, but Kevin Walsh&#39;s speech at 8:30 PM. Here are the three elements I will be watching closely:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Dissenting Votes:<\/strong> Will there be committee members who oppose the hike? If so, how many? This would provide a valuable indication of the intensity of internal debates.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Economic Projections:<\/strong> The Fed&#39;s forecasts for the future, especially for 2027, will be scrutinized to discern the future trajectory.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Tone Used:<\/strong> Will the speech be firm, reassuring, pessimistic? Every word will be important for anticipating the next steps. This is where the real stakes of the evening lie.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 id=\"a-lesson-from-the-past-when-the-market-defies-a-central-bank\">A Lesson from the Past: When the Market Defies a Central Bank<\/h2>\n<p>To illustrate that a central bank is not all-powerful, I like to remember what happened on another September 16, in 1992. The Bank of England was attacked by hedge funds that considered the British pound overvalued. To defend its currency, it first raised its rates from 10% to 12%&#8230; without success. Facing continued pressure, it then promised to raise them to 15%! Imagine two rate hikes announced on the same day.<\/p>\n<p>And yet, it wasn&#39;t enough. That same evening, the British government had to capitulate and withdraw the pound from the European Monetary System. The lesson is clear: the market, when coordinated and determined, can have the final say against an institution.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In short, don&#39;t get distracted by the 8 PM announcement. With the premise of a hike already accepted, the real game will unfold at 8:30 PM during the press conference. That&#39;s when volatility will be at its highest. So be particularly cautious. It&#39;s not necessarily the best time of the week to trade without a solid framework and iron discipline. Stay curious!<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME & CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne, and an adult education expert. With over 30 years of experience trading CME futures, in the TRADING series he shares session analyses, trade replays with commentary, psychology and risk management \u2014 no signals, no promises, raw and unfiltered trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A8WwwHLGM7P5&color=%23751CBF&display=horizontal&multishow=false&playlist=true&dark=false&v=3&playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><script src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed: Why the Rate Hike Isn&#39;t the Real Story This Wednesday, September 16, 2026, the markets&#39; attention is fixated on the Fed. A rate hike seems inevitable, but it&#39;s a mistake to focus solely on that. In reality, the market has already priced in this information. The real question, the one that will dictate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Fed: Why the Rate Hike Isn&#039;t the Real Story<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tonight, the Fed will likely raise rates, but that&#039;s not the real story. 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