{"id":866,"date":"2026-01-28T10:05:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T10:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/fomc-day-my-strategy-for-volatility-and-market-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-01-28T10:05:48","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T10:05:48","slug":"fomc-day-my-strategy-for-volatility-and-market-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/fomc-day-my-strategy-for-volatility-and-market-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC Day: My Strategy for Volatility and Market Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"fomc-day-my-strategy-for-volatility-and-market-analysis\">FOMC Day: My Strategy for Volatility and Market Analysis<\/h1>\n<p>Hello everyone. Today is a very special day for the financial markets, and believe me, with over 30 years of trading behind me, I know this is a critical moment. It\u2019s FOMC day: we\u2019re going to have volatility, risks, but also tears for those who aren\u2019t prepared. My goal here is to help you understand what\u2019s at stake, how to manage your capital, and why caution is the better part of valor today.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"FOMC: The Beginner Trap, I Divide Position Sizes by 30\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_glMTiE2o530\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FglMTiE2o530%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/glMTiE2o530\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT14M52S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-01-28T10:04:03Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_glMTiE2o530\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FglMTiE2o530%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">FOMC: The Beginner Trap, I Divide Position Sizes by 30<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Play the video\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/glMTiE2o530\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FglMTiE2o530%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"FOMC: The Beginner Trap, I Divide Position Sizes by 30\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"It is FOMC day: I explain why this is not the moment to try and \u201cmake back\u201d losses and why hyper-volatility should repel rather than attract traders. Even with 30 years of experience, I approach this in quasi-demo mode, with position sizes divided by 30, risking only what I am ready to lose. I review the CME FedWatch Tool to frame interest rate expectations (97.2% stable), while the Nasdaq hits new highs, the Dow Jones diverges, and the CAC 40 stays in a range. Gold and Bitcoin are also scrutinized alongside proper risk management strategies during this key economic event. Subscribe if this helps you. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/news\/ 30 years of trading, 25 years of teaching, a double expertise at the service of your success \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Trader \u2022 CME Member \u2022 Economic History Specialist About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator. In the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n<p><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"why-i-am-staying-in-port-today\">Why I Am Staying in Port Today<\/h2>\n<p>Frankly, FOMC days are like announcing a hurricane. It arguably isn\u2019t the time to take your pedal boat out for a spin at sea. Here is the raw reality of the situation:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>The beginner\u2019s trap:<\/strong> Many are drawn to the light like moths because of the market hyperactivity. The result? They burn their wings.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The pro attitude:<\/strong> While amateurs rush toward the eye of the storm, experienced traders return to port. We observe, we wait, and sometimes we have a drink while watching the show from afar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Drastic risk management:<\/strong> Even with my experience and my status as a CME member, I divide my positions by 30 if I trade. I switch to &quot;quasi-demo&quot; mode for fun or to attempt a key level, but only with money I am ready to lose.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Basically, don\u2019t try to prove your testosterone. You aren\u2019t going to change your life in one day, but you can destroy your account.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-the-fedwatch-tells-us\">What the FedWatch Tells Us<\/h2>\n<p>To navigate this chaos, you need compasses. The main tool is the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch. It represents the reference to see what investors anticipate.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, <strong>97.2% of investors<\/strong> expect stable rates. This is the crucial information. If the Fed Chair confirms this stability, things will already move. But watch out for the nuance: if we step out of this expected range, it will be an explosion (upward or downward depending on the direction). We are noting an interesting evolution, by the way: a month ago, nearly 20% of people were hoping for a cut. Today, we have returned to reality.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"a-quick-aside-on-the-real-economy\">A Quick Aside on the Real Economy<\/h3>\n<p>Some dream of low rates to clear up real estate, a bit like Donald Trump would like. But keep in mind that &quot;free&quot; money creates monstrous inflation. If your house doubles in value, congratulations, but if all the houses around it double too, you haven\u2019t really gotten richer. You have just preserved your nominal purchasing power in a more expensive market.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-current-state-of-affairs-indices-gold-and-crypto\">The Current State of Affairs: Indices, Gold, and Crypto<\/h2>\n<p>We are observing a fascinating dynamic and a real sectoral imbalance even before the announcements.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"1-the-frenzy-of-the-nasdaq-and-sp-500\">1. The Frenzy of the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500<\/h3>\n<p>It is total excitement. We are on annual highs, it\u2019s pushing very hard, probably driven by the anticipation of Tech earnings (Tesla, Meta). To use a slightly colorful image:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>Nasdaq<\/strong> seems to be running on heroin (hyper-volatility, moving in all directions).<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong> is running on cocaine (it\u2019s the little brother, following the movement but a notch below).<\/li>\n<li>If you find the Nasdaq too violent, the S&amp;P 500 is often a more manageable alternative.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 id=\"2-the-dow-jones-and-cac-40-lagging-behind\">2. The Dow Jones and CAC 40 Lagging Behind<\/h3>\n<p>Conversely, the Dow Jones is in the red, undergoing a sectoral rebalancing. Money is being taken out here to be put into Tech. As for the CAC 40&#8230; it\u2019s depression. We have been stuck in a range since early December, with no volume. It doesn\u2019t serve much purpose at the moment, it is sad to say.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"3-gold-and-bitcoin\">3. Gold and Bitcoin<\/h3>\n<p>Gold is literally exploding after decades of stagnation (1980\u20132010). Uncertainty benefits it immensely. However, Bitcoin, a so-called safe haven, remains blocked on its monthly pivot. If it doesn\u2019t clear the technical obstacles soon, its current configuration is dangerously starting to resemble that of the CAC 40 (which is not a compliment).<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In summary, be responsible adults today. Let the FOMC storm pass or drastically reduce your exposure. On my side, I am also preparing the future of my school. For your information, 2026 will be the last year for my seminars in Europe before I switch to Canada, the USA, and later Japan. So there are only a few slots left for those who want to train in person on the old continent.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful, preserve your capital, and see you tomorrow to take stock once the storm has passed.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\n<p>Benoist Rousseau<br \/>\nTrader \u2022 CME Member \u2022 Economic History Specialist<\/p>\n<p>About the author<br \/>\nBenoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator.<br \/>\nIn the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>By starting the video, you accept YouTube&#039;s cookies.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOMC Day: My Strategy for Volatility and Market Analysis Hello everyone. Today is a very special day for the financial markets, and believe me, with over\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":865,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FOMC Day: My Strategy for Volatility and Market Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysis of FOMC day: risk management, index volatility, and the gold surge. 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