{"id":883,"date":"2026-02-11T08:48:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T08:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/nfp-report-and-rates-why-im-not-making-a-move-before-830-am-et\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T07:38:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T07:38:04","slug":"nfp-report-and-rates-why-im-not-making-a-move-before-830-am-et","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/nfp-report-and-rates-why-im-not-making-a-move-before-830-am-et\/","title":{"rendered":"NFP Report and Rates: Why I'm Not Making a Move Before 8:30 AM ET"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"nfp-report-and-rates-why-im-not-making-a-move-before-830-am-et\">NFP Report and Rates: Why I&#39;m Not Making a Move Before 8:30 AM ET<\/h1>\n<p>I have to confess, I&#39;m a tired trader this morning. I&#39;m coming off a sleepless night finalizing a huge project, but I couldn&#39;t miss this update on the current situation. Yesterday, we had a &quot;range&quot; day, meaning the market trod water. Why? Because everyone is waiting for the major event of the week scheduled for today at 8:30 AM ET: the famous monthly US employment report.<\/p>\n<p>This figure is fundamental because it will dictate the Fed&#39;s conduct regarding interest rates. In the meantime, there is palpable tension where the slightest anticipation error can be costly.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper fourthree\" title=\"Monthly Jobs Report: Why &ldquo;Bad News&rdquo; Can Boost the Stock Market\" style=\"width:420px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_P3q8qh7fVk4\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/P3q8qh7fVk4\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/P3q8qh7fVk4\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT7M54S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-02-11T08:22:04Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_P3q8qh7fVk4\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/P3q8qh7fVk4\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Monthly Jobs Report: Why \u201cBad News\u201d Can Boost the Stock Market<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/P3q8qh7fVk4\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/P3q8qh7fVk4\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Monthly Jobs Report: Why &ldquo;Bad News&rdquo; Can Boost the Stock Market\" width=\"420\" height=\"295\" \/><br \/>Lire cette vid\u00e9o sur YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"The monthly jobs report drops at 8:30 AM ET, and the entire market is waiting for this number. I discuss the counter-intuitive idea that signals deemed \u201cnegative\u201d (weaker employment, stagnant retail sales) become positive indicators for interest rate cuts. This implies bullish news for Wall Street and especially the Nasdaq, which funds AI. On the technical side, indices remain stuck under monthly resistance levels, gold is ranging, and Bitcoin fails to hold above 70,000. Subscribe if this helps. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/news\/ Train in trading with a real professional, not an influencer. \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Certified Teacher | Pro Trader | CME\/CBOT Member About the author Benoist Rousseau is a professional trader and member of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade), an economic historian with a degree from Paris-Sorbonne University, a former history-geography teacher, and an adult educator for 25 years. This unique path connects academic rigor, field expertise, and a commitment to imparting the discipline and lucidity of professional trading. In the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, drawing on 25 years of market experience, he shares his clear, independent, and educational analysis of global financial news each morning. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:420px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><\/div>\n<p>Subscribe to the YouTube channel with 1 click <script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/js\/platform.js\"><\/script><span class=\"g-ytsubscribe\" data-channelid=\"UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ\" data-layout=\"default\" data-count=\"hidden\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-economic-context-in-3-key-points\">The Economic Context in 3 Key Points<\/h2>\n<p>To fully understand what&#39;s at stake this morning, we need to look beyond the raw number. Here are the structural elements dominating my current analysis:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Consensus Expectations<\/strong>: Experts are counting on 70,000 job creations (compared to 50,000 the previous month) and unemployment stable at 4.4%. That&#39;s the starting premise.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Warning Signs from the White House<\/strong>: Kevin Hassett warned that job growth could slow down. The reason? A decrease in the active workforce linked, among other things, to the tightening of migration policy. In California, for example, the lack of cheap labor is starting to weigh on productivity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Running Out of Steam on Consumption<\/strong>: Retail sales stagnated in December. Yet, that is the month when consumption should be exploding.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 id=\"when-bad-news-becomes-good-news\">When Bad News Becomes Good News<\/h3>\n<p>This is where my favorite illustration of the moment comes in. December is supposed to be the month when Ken and Barbie max out the credit card for Christmas. However, this year, no excessive overconsumption. If the real economy starts to slip (fewer jobs, fewer purchases), this paradoxically becomes a positive signal for the stock market.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Because the Fed will be forced to lower its rates to restart the machine. And lower rates are manna from heaven for the Nasdaq and AI companies that have to borrow billions to finance themselves. Basically, Wall Street is almost hoping the numbers are bad.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"technical-discipline-and-prudence\">Technical Discipline and Prudence<\/h2>\n<p>On the charts, the situation confirms this expectation. All major indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) are literally stuck under their monthly resistances. It&#39;s as if they&#39;re holding their breath. The Dow Jones remains at very high levels, but it refuses to cross the threshold before the news.<\/p>\n<p>In my view, this is where discipline makes the difference. If you are serious, you don&#39;t take a position before the statistic. It would be, let&#39;s be frank, pretty stupid to bet blindly in the face of such potential volatility.<\/p>\n<p>A quick note on other assets: Gold is also stagnating in a tight range. As for Bitcoin, the dynamic is more worrying. It&#39;s failing to stay above $70,000 and is sliding towards $67,000. The chart configuration suggests a heavy trend for two months now. If it breaks $65,000, a return towards $60,000 is entirely plausible.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>In short, we are in a phase of inertia before the explosion. Everything will unlock with the 8:30 AM statistic. Until then, I advise you to keep your capital warm and observe. That&#39;s also part of managing your risk.<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\n<p>Benoist Rousseau<br \/>\nTrader \u2022 CME Member \u2022 Economic History Specialist<\/p>\n<p>About the author<br \/>\nBenoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator.<br \/>\nIn the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A3nOvHk1pgeM&color=%23751CBF&display=horizontal&multishow=false&playlist=true&dark=false&v=3&playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><script src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NFP Report and Rates: Why I&#39;m Not Making a Move Before 8:30 AM ET I have to confess, I&#39;m a tired trader this morning. I&#39;m coming off a sleepless night finalizing a huge project, but I couldn&#39;t miss this update on the current situation. Yesterday, we had a &quot;range&quot; day, meaning the market trod water. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NFP Report and Rates: Why I&#039;m Not Making a Move Before 8:30 AM ET<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets await the NFP report. 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