{"id":920,"date":"2026-03-10T08:39:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T08:39:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T07:34:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T07:34:56","slug":"oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil, Nasdaq, and geopolitics: why the markets remain calm"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"oil-nasdaq-and-war-what-the-markets-really-said\">Oil, Nasdaq, and war: what the markets really said<\/h1>\n<p>A 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq being described as an &#39;imminent crash&#39; on 24-hour news channels: this is the level of analysis to which financial markets are subjected whenever a geopolitical event makes the headlines. In this regard, we need to put the data back into its true context, separating the media noise from the actual market structure. What I&#39;m seeing in this sequence is exactly the illustration of a well-known mechanism: perceived tension far exceeds real tension, and prices ultimately arbitrate it.<\/p>\n<p><b><\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 0 auto; line-height: 1.5 !important;\">\n<div style=\"line-height: 0;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/b><div class=\"lyte-wrapper fourthree\" title=\"Oil: From &#36;120 to &#36;90 after Donald Trump&#039;s statements and the Hormuz effect\" style=\"width:420px;max-width:100%;margin:5px auto;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_heNBSX00dkk\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/heNBSX00dkk\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/heNBSX00dkk\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT10M13S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-03-10T08:22:46Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_heNBSX00dkk\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/heNBSX00dkk\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Oil: From &#36;120 to &#36;90 after Donald Trump&#039;s statements and the Hormuz effect<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/heNBSX00dkk\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/heNBSX00dkk\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Oil: From &#36;120 to &#36;90 after Donald Trump&#039;s statements and the Hormuz effect\" width=\"420\" height=\"295\" \/><br \/>Lire cette vid\u00e9o sur YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Oil and financial markets: I started with the most striking movement, featuring an increase of over 30% followed by a sharp reversal, dropping from a peak near &#36;120 down to around &#36;90, which accelerated after Donald Trump spoke. I placed this in the context of the Strait of Hormuz, the refinery issue, and the fact that a key terminal was not targeted. At the same time, indices bounced back, gold remained in its range, and Bitcoin returned to &#36;70,000, while diesel remained very expensive at the pump. Subscribe if this helps. Sign up for the newsletter and receive a &#36;100 USD gift token \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/news\/ 30 years of trading, 25 years of teaching, a double expertise at the service of your success \ud83d\udc49 https:\/\/www.benoistrousseau.com\/en\/ Benoist Rousseau Trader \u2022 CME Member \u2022 Economic History Specialist About the author Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator. In the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning. Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged financial instruments may expose you to a risk of loss exceeding deposits and is only suitable for experienced clients who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk. Transactions in foreign exchange instruments (Forex), contracts for difference (CFDs), Futures, Stocks, ETFs... are highly speculative and particularly complex and carry a high level of risk due to leverage. You must ensure that you understand how these instruments work and that you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The videos and articles on this site are for educational and informational purposes only and are not investment advice or any inducement to buy or sell financial instruments. Every investor must make their own judgment before investing in a financial product to ensure it is suitable for their financial, tax and legal situation.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:420px;margin:5px auto;\"><\/div><b><\/b><br \/>Subscribe to the YouTube channel in 1 click <script src=\"https:\/\/apis.google.com\/js\/platform.js\"><\/script><span class=\"g-ytsubscribe\" data-channelid=\"UCdJNLC4XwD9bwYXDNcxLIzQ\" data-layout=\"default\" data-count=\"hidden\" <b>style=\"vertical-align: middle; margin-left: 5px;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"oil-extreme-volatility-rapid-resolution\">Oil: extreme volatility, rapid resolution<\/h2>\n<p>During this sequence, oil was the most spectacular asset to analyze. A surge of over 30%, pushing prices close to $120, built up based on the weekend&#39;s events; then a gradual deceleration began, followed by a sharp downward acceleration as soon as Donald Trump spoke publicly.<\/p>\n<p>The message delivered was essentially this: the war will be short, the enemy is neutralized, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is recognized and will not be left unanswered. This speech\u2014which can be described as reassuring for the markets\u2014was enough to bring prices back down from $120 to around $90.<\/p>\n<p>However, the underlying geostrategic logic needs to be clarified. If the real objective had been to block Iranian oil exports, the strategic target is well known: an isolated island in the Strait of Hormuz, lacking air defense, which alone accounts for about 90% of Iranian oil exports\u2014this is where supertankers refuel. That infrastructure was not hit. I&#39;m willing to bet it won&#39;t be. The combined pressures from China, the United States, and the European Union are all converging in the same direction: keeping traffic flowing through the strait. The Iranians themselves have not scuttled their own terminal, which says something about the true limits of the conflict.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-nasdaq-a-1000-point-jump-no-crash\">The Nasdaq: a 1,000-point jump, no crash<\/h2>\n<p>While the media was portraying a disastrous situation based on a -1.5% opening, the Nasdaq 100 surged from 24,000 to 25,000 points during the session\u2014an increase of more than 4% from its lowest point. This is a massive move, the likes of which we certainly don&#39;t see every day.<\/p>\n<p>We need to be precise about the levels here:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>24,000 points<\/strong> matched the annual low; an algorithmically significant level where I would normally have taken a position\u2014unfortunately, the dip happened between midnight and 2 AM.<\/li>\n<li><strong>25,000 points<\/strong> is a level that had already been tested before the current events: the December low, the November support zone. Returning to these familiar areas is not insignificant; it reflects a sense of confidence in the cycle&#39;s continuity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The upward acceleration<\/strong> coincided perfectly with Donald Trump&#39;s speech\u2014proving, once again, the weight of political statements in short-term price discovery.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The S&P 500 is stabilizing around 6,800 points; the Dow Jones has retraced about 50% of its drop, blocked by a monthly resistance. There is a clear divide between the US indices, driven by Nasdaq tech stocks, and European indices, which are more moderate in their rebound.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"european-indices-and-key-levels\">European indices and key levels<\/h2>\n<p>Over in Europe, the CAC 40 is touching the 8,000-point mark again\u2014a level I&#39;ve been mentioning for about two months, which acts as a structural reference. Meanwhile, the DAX 40 has positioned itself back above 23,500 points, sending a positive positioning signal.<\/p>\n<p>All indices are thus back in key zones, or even slightly above them. This does not mean volatility is dead: another downward wave remains possible depending on how the strikes evolve. But at this stage, the market structure is consistent with a scenario where the conflict is resolved relatively quickly.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"gold-bitcoin-and-peripheral-signals\">Gold, Bitcoin, and peripheral signals<\/h2>\n<p>In this setup, gold is holding within its usual range\u2014which, reading between the lines, provides useful insight: the lack of a flight to safe-haven assets reflects moderate systemic anxiety, a far cry from what media coverage might have suggested.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is back up to $70,000. I have few serious analytical comments to offer regarding the driving forces behind this move.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding diesel: gas stations had anticipated the rising price of oil per barrel by hiking their prices to \u20ac2.20 \u2013 \u20ac2.50. The decline, as always, will structurally be slower than the ascent. This comes as no surprise; it&#39;s a well-documented inertia in the supply chain.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-iranian-fracture-a-diplomatic-signal-to-watch\">The Iranian fracture: a diplomatic signal to watch<\/h2>\n<p>Within the Iranian government, signs of fracture are beginning to emerge. Just 24 hours ago, a Revolutionary Guard maintained a stance of absolute intransigence\u2014negotiation was out of the question. Overnight, Iranian diplomats mentioned an interest in a ceasefire. This is a notable development, even if it remains uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>It is likely\u2014and this is an estimate, not a certainty\u2014that this gap in positions will only widen if the conflict drags on for another two to three weeks. The internal dynamics of a regime under military pressure generally follow this kind of trajectory: public firmness first, then quiet doubts, and finally, openness.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclusion\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<h1 id=\"the-sequence-analyzed-here-illustrates-with-remarkable-clarity-the-distortion-between-media-narrative-and-the-structural-reality-of-the-markets-while-the-word-crash-was-making-the-rounds-based-on-a-15-correction-the-nasdaq-was-building-one-of-its-most-bullish-sessions-of-the-year-indices-have-returned-to-their-november-december-levels-oil-has-absorbed-its-risk-premium-and-gold-hasnt-flinchedthree-converging-signals-of-a-market-that-in-stock-market-terms-remains-relatively-serene\">The sequence analyzed here illustrates with remarkable clarity the distortion between media narrative and the structural reality of the markets: while the word &#39;crash&#39; was making the rounds based on a 1.5% correction, the Nasdaq was building one of its most bullish sessions of the year. Indices have returned to their November-December levels, oil has absorbed its risk premium, and gold hasn&#39;t flinched\u2014three converging signals of a market that, in stock market terms, remains relatively serene.<\/h1>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\n<p>Benoist Rousseau<br \/>\nTrader \u2022 CME Member \u2022 Economic History Specialist<\/p>\n<p>About the author<br \/>\nBenoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator.<br \/>\nIn the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Sign up for the newsletter and receive a $100 USD gift token<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form fields=\"email,name\" form-id=\"58f316f9-64b8-49e1-9eb9-dce612bfba6c\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p><iframe name=\"Ausha Podcast Player\" frameborder=\"0\" loading=\"lazy\" id=\"ausha-DmwZ\" height=\"420\" style=\"border: none; width:100%; height:420px\" src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/?showId=A3nOvHk1pgeM&color=%23751CBF&display=horizontal&multishow=false&playlist=true&dark=false&v=3&playerId=ausha-DmwZ\"><\/iframe><script src=\"https:\/\/player.ausha.co\/ausha-player.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil, Nasdaq, and war: what the markets really said A 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq being described as an &#39;imminent crash&#39; on 24-hour news channels: this is the level of analysis to which financial markets are subjected whenever a geopolitical event makes the headlines. In this regard, we need to put the data back into [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil, Nasdaq, and geopolitics: why the markets remain calm<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets are bouncing back despite geopolitical tensions. Oil, Nasdaq, CAC 40: discover why there is no real panic on the stock exchange.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/en\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Benoist Rousseau\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Benoist Rousseau\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2b6f1d33be6ec21d70fbf33dd1d5c5d4\"},\"headline\":\"Oil, Nasdaq, and geopolitics: why the markets remain calm\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-10T08:39:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-05T07:34:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":980,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/260310-0811_000237-NEVR_T-GMT_gmt10032026_EN-US_TMB.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Market session analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/\",\"name\":\"Oil, Nasdaq, and geopolitics: why the markets remain calm\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/oil-nasdaq-and-geopolitics-why-the-markets-remain-calm\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/260310-0811_000237-NEVR_T-GMT_gmt10032026_EN-US_TMB.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-10T08:39:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-05T07:34:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andlil.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2b6f1d33be6ec21d70fbf33dd1d5c5d4\"},\"description\":\"Markets are bouncing back despite geopolitical tensions. 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