{"id":115,"date":"2026-09-16T07:13:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:13:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/pt\/fed-por-que-a-alta-das-taxas-nao-e-o-verdadeiro-problema\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T07:13:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:13:49","slug":"fed-por-que-a-alta-das-taxas-nao-e-o-verdadeiro-problema","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/pt\/fed-por-que-a-alta-das-taxas-nao-e-o-verdadeiro-problema\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed: por que a alta das taxas n\u00e3o \u00e9 o verdadeiro problema"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 id=\"fed-por-que-a-alta-das-taxas-n\u00e3o-\u00e9-o-verdadeiro-problema\">Fed: por que a alta das taxas n\u00e3o \u00e9 o verdadeiro problema<\/h1>\n<p>Nesta quarta-feira, 16 de setembro de 2026, a aten\u00e7\u00e3o dos mercados est\u00e1 tensa com o Fed. Uma alta nas taxas de juros parece inevit\u00e1vel, mas \u00e9 um erro focar apenas nisso. Na realidade, o mercado j\u00e1 precificou essa informa\u00e7\u00e3o. A verdadeira quest\u00e3o, aquela que ditar\u00e1 os movimentos futuros, ser\u00e1 decidida bem mais tarde, durante a coletiva de imprensa. \u00c9 um momento crucial. Ali\u00e1s, este tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 um per\u00edodo intenso para mim, pois estou finalizando o lan\u00e7amento de um projeto colossal no qual trabalho h\u00e1 um ano: cerca de trinta novos canais no YouTube sobre temas como hist\u00f3ria, economia ou filosofia, tudo em seis idiomas. Mas, por enquanto, vamos nos concentrar nos desafios desta noite.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"max-width: 560px; margin: 20px auto;\"><div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" style=\"width:640px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_peTTr9xgYh0\"><div id=\"lyte_peTTr9xgYh0\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/pt\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FpeTTr9xgYh0%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\"><\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\" aria-label=\"Reproduzir o v\u00eddeo\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/peTTr9xgYh0\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andlil.com\/pt\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FpeTTr9xgYh0%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video thumbnail\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Assista a este v\u00eddeo no YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:640px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/div>\n\n<div style=\"margin: 15px 0;\"><a class=\"yt-abo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCNNJw46RXVxd6n60NVixX9w?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg class=\"yt-abo-logo\" aria-hidden=\"true\" viewBox=\"0 0 28 20\" width=\"24\" height=\"17\"><rect width=\"28\" height=\"20\" rx=\"5\" fill=\"#fff\"\/><path d=\"M11.2 5.6v8.8l7.4-4.4z\" fill=\"#FF0000\"\/><\/svg><span>Inscreva-se no canal do YouTube com 1 clique<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"um-contexto-de-mercado-j\u00e1-sob-press\u00e3o\">Um contexto de mercado j\u00e1 sob press\u00e3o<\/h2>\n<p>H\u00e1 uma semana, tudo gira em torno do petr\u00f3leo e das taxas de juros. Wall Street, logicamente, recuou, com perdas m\u00e9dias em torno de 0,6% a 0,7% para os principais \u00edndices. A press\u00e3o vem principalmente da taxa de 10 anos dos EUA, que ultrapassou 5% durante o preg\u00e3o. \u00c9 um pico que n\u00e3o v\u00edamos h\u00e1 quase 20 anos. Concretamente, isso significa que os Estados Unidos est\u00e3o pegando empr\u00e9stimos a juros muito mais altos, o que tem repercuss\u00f5es diretas, especialmente no setor imobili\u00e1rio. Naturalmente, \u00e9 mais dif\u00edcil financiar a compra do primeiro im\u00f3vel quando as taxas est\u00e3o nesse n\u00edvel.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"a-equa\u00e7\u00e3o-do-petr\u00f3leo-e-seu-impacto-na-infla\u00e7\u00e3o\">A equa\u00e7\u00e3o do petr\u00f3leo e seu impacto na infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h2>\n<p>O petr\u00f3leo adiciona sua pr\u00f3pria tens\u00e3o. Com o tr\u00e1fego quase parado no Estreito de Ormuz e um oleoduto saudita de emerg\u00eancia recentemente cortado, os pre\u00e7os disparam. O barril, seja WTI ou Brent, est\u00e1 sendo negociado acima de 104-105 d\u00f3lares. Esta \u00e9 uma excelente not\u00edcia para os pa\u00edses produtores, mas p\u00e9ssima para os consumidores e para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o. Com isso, aumenta a press\u00e3o sobre o Fed para que atue com mais firmeza. O limiar psicol\u00f3gico \u00e9 realmente os 100 d\u00f3lares. Enquanto permanecermos acima desse valor, o clima n\u00e3o \u00e9 tranquilo.<\/p>\n<p>Ali\u00e1s, \u00e9 preciso fazer uma ressalva sobre o impacto desse oleoduto cortado. Sua capacidade te\u00f3rica \u00e9 de 7 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia, mas na pr\u00e1tica, devido \u00e0s limita\u00e7\u00f5es log\u00edsticas do porto de destino, o fluxo real era mais pr\u00f3ximo de 3 a 4 milh\u00f5es. A perda \u00e9, portanto, significativa, mas menos catastr\u00f3fica do que os n\u00fameros brutos sugeriam.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"fed-os-3-pontos-que-realmente-importam-esta-noite\">Fed: os 3 pontos que realmente importam esta noite<\/h2>\n<p>A alta de um quarto de ponto \u00e9 esperada por 90% dos investidores. Ela j\u00e1 est\u00e1, como se diz, &quot;precificada&quot;. Esta noite, n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 a decis\u00e3o das 20h que mover\u00e1 o mercado, mas sim o discurso de Kevin Walsh \u00e0s 20h30. Aqui est\u00e3o os tr\u00eas elementos que vou acompanhar de perto:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Os votos dissidentes:<\/strong> Haver\u00e1 membros do comit\u00ea que se opor\u00e3o \u00e0 alta? Se sim, quantos? Isso daria uma indica\u00e7\u00e3o preciosa sobre a intensidade dos debates internos.<\/li>\n<li><strong>As proje\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas:<\/strong> As previs\u00f5es do Fed para o futuro, especialmente para 2027, ser\u00e3o analisadas minuciosamente para identificar a trajet\u00f3ria futura.<\/li>\n<li><strong>O tom empregado:<\/strong> O discurso ser\u00e1 firme, tranquilizador, pessimista? Cada palavra ter\u00e1 sua import\u00e2ncia para antecipar os pr\u00f3ximos passos. \u00c9 a\u00ed que reside o verdadeiro desafio da noite.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 id=\"uma-li\u00e7\u00e3o-do-passado-quando-o-mercado-desafia-um-banco-central\">Uma li\u00e7\u00e3o do passado: quando o mercado desafia um banco central<\/h2>\n<p>Para ilustrar que um banco central n\u00e3o \u00e9 todo-poderoso, gosto de lembrar o que aconteceu em outro 16 de setembro, em 1992. O Banco da Inglaterra foi atacado por fundos especulativos que consideravam a libra esterlina supervalorizada. Para defender sua moeda, ele primeiro subiu suas taxas de juros de 10% para 12%&#8230; sem sucesso. Diante da press\u00e3o cont\u00ednua, ele ent\u00e3o prometeu aument\u00e1-las para 15%! Imagine duas altas de juros anunciadas no mesmo dia.<\/p>\n<p>E, mesmo assim, n\u00e3o foi suficiente. Na mesma noite, o governo brit\u00e2nico teve que capitular e retirar a libra do sistema monet\u00e1rio europeu. A li\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 clara: o mercado, quando coordenado e determinado, pode ter a \u00faltima palavra diante de uma institui\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"conclus\u00e3o\">Conclus\u00e3o<\/h2>\n<p>Em resumo, n\u00e3o se distraia com o an\u00fancio das 20h. Como a premissa de uma alta j\u00e1 est\u00e1 confirmada, o verdadeiro jogo acontecer\u00e1 \u00e0s 20h30 durante a coletiva de imprensa. \u00c9 nesse momento que a volatilidade ser\u00e1 mais forte. Portanto, sejam particularmente prudentes. Este n\u00e3o \u00e9 necessariamente o melhor momento da semana para operar sem um plano e uma disciplina de ferro. Mantenham-se curiosos!<\/p>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"encart\">\nBenoist Rousseau<br \/>\nIndependent Trader \u2022 CME &#038; CBOT Member<\/p>\n<p>Benoist Rousseau \u00e9 trader, membro do Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) e do Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), especialista em hist\u00f3ria econ\u00f4mica pela Sorbonne e especialista em forma\u00e7\u00e3o de adultos. Com mais de 30 anos de experi\u00eancia nos futuros do CME, na s\u00e9rie TRADING compartilha an\u00e1lises de sess\u00e3o, replays de trades comentados, psicologia e gest\u00e3o de risco \u2014 sem sinais nem promessas, trading puro e sem filtros.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>Inscreva-se na newsletter e receba um vale-presente de 100 USD<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><\/div>\n<p><getresponse-form form-id=\"4d2b4296-4e0f-4d98-b2ea-7bcf2a632d9e\" e=\"0\"><\/getresponse-form><\/p>\n<p class=\"tiers-avis tiers-avis--haut\" data-lyte-avis hidden>Ao iniciar o v\u00eddeo, aceita os cookies do YouTube.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed: por que a alta das taxas n\u00e3o \u00e9 o verdadeiro problema Nesta quarta-feira, 16 de setembro de 2026, a aten\u00e7\u00e3o dos mercados est\u00e1 tensa com\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"andlil_sujets":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analise-de-mercado"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed: por que a alta das taxas n\u00e3o \u00e9 o verdadeiro problema - Andlil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Esta noite, o Fed provavelmente aumentar\u00e1 as taxas de juros, mas esse n\u00e3o \u00e9 o ponto principal. 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