Why Markets Are Ignoring the Global Crisis
Why Markets Are Ignoring the Global Crisis
Contents
International tensions are exploding, but financial markets refuse to panic. Right now, the news is heavy between Iran and the United States. Yet, the charts are displaying quite a surprising calm. In this quick update, I break down why the panic won't happen and the state of our major assets, with precise figures from this morning.
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1. Oil Under Control
Honestly, the markets are not panicking. Why? The G7 is organizing virtually. They even plan to tap into their strategic reserves. These are the safety stocks intended for major crises. It's done to bring down the price of a barrel. And it's working really well.
As a matter of fact, the price has stabilized around $83. It's a rather high zone but not at all excessive. Consequently, Donald Trump's reassuring speeches can be heard. The world of plastics and transportation is breathing for now.
2. Bitcoin at a Standstill
Gold is barely moving either. On the other hand, Bitcoin confirms that it's not an absolute safe haven. It has already dropped quite a bit over the past two months.
Currently, it's stuck at the $72,000 mark. In fact, it keeps coming back to hit its zone around $69,500. Simply put, it constantly bounces off this floor to go back up a little.
If we break $72,000 upwards, a truly powerful signal will be confirmed. But for now, it's 50-50 in the middle of nowhere. Anyway, fellow traders, let's leave this highly uncertain situation aside.
3. Europe and the US Are Treading Water
On the CAC 40, it's super quiet. The price is moving horizontally just above 8,000 points.
On the German DAX, it's quite technical. It's locked at 24,000 points. The price is doing what we call a "range." Basically, it's like a game of ping-pong. It bounces between a lower limit and a ceiling without really picking its final direction.
In the United States, the same observation repeats itself. The Nasdaq is stagnating around 25,000 points. And this, despite some excellent news last night. Oracle shattered its financial expectations with the artificial intelligence boom. Its stock even surged 6%.
The Important Little Caveat
But be careful, stay highly vigilant. Stock markets are using good news just to stabilize at the top. If bad news breaks, the market could plummet very quickly, dragged down by its own weight.
Conclusion
In short, the stock market is digesting the news with absolute discipline. Prices are swimming within their usual limits with no clear direction at all. The timing isn't ideal to play a guessing game on what's next. Watch your key levels and stay cautious. Anyway, I'm off to meet my school students right away. See you tomorrow!
Benoist Rousseau
Trader • CME Member • Economic History Specialist
About the author
Benoist Rousseau is a trader, member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), an economic history specialist educated at the Sorbonne and an experienced educator.
In the GOOD MORNING TRADING series, with over 30 years of experience, he shares his independent analysis of global financial news every morning.
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