Nasdaq at 26,000 Points: Bullish Euphoria or Glass Ceiling?

Welcome to GoodMorning Trading. With over 30 years of trading behind me—including membership at the CME and CBOT—I have to confess that the Nasdaq remains my favorite playground 99% of the time. Why? Because of its volatility, which offers real opportunities, unlike the inertia of European indices. Today, we are facing a fascinating technical setup: the Nasdaq is settling above 26,000 points. It's a strong signal, but recent history invites us to be nuanced and cautious before declaring victory.

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Situation Analysis: Between Power and Market Memory

We are on an extremely bullish trend; that is undeniable. However, to navigate this zone successfully, we must structure our approach around several key points:

1. Resilience of the 26,000-point threshold: After breaking through 25,750, the market pushed relentlessly to establish itself above 26,000. If this level becomes solid support, the rally can continue.
2. The risk of "déjà vu": Be careful, though; we are right at the two-month highs. The last two times we touched this level, the market corrected by 2,000 and then 900 points. It is a technical classic: on the third contact, it is make or break.
3. The futility of impulsive shorting: In this context, short selling (shorting) is reckless. With the AI revolution and current enthusiasm, betting against the flow is a beginner's mistake. In the stock market, we prioritize capital over ego.

The Great Divide: US vs Europe

There is a flagrant asymmetry between the two continents. To illustrate, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are flirting with their highs, the CAC 40 has the energy of an "Albanian snail crossing a highway".

Nothing is happening in Paris. The French index is stagnating on its monthly pivot point, without financial flow. The danger? If the United States sneezes, Europe risks pneumonia. The German DAX is faring a bit better, but it still lags 2% behind the American momentum. In short, if you have money to invest, the flow is clearly across the Atlantic.

Conclusion

The week promises to be decisive with corporate earnings, notably Intel on Wednesday evening. This could unlock the situation on Thursday. My ideal scenario? A slight breather towards 25,800 to regain support, rather than a vertical straight line. Stay cautious, follow the flow, and above all, enjoy your trading.

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