FED, Tech and Gold at the Peak: My Express Market Update

I won’t lie, it was a war zone this morning with my computer gear. But I absolutely wanted to share my analysis with you, even in fast-forward mode. Between the Fed standing its ground, Tech giants spending like there’s no tomorrow, and Gold soaring, there are crucial things to understand for your trades today.

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The FED: A Return to Reality

Let’s start with the FOMC. Honestly, there were no major surprises. The Fed Chair was very clear: he is not a politician here to sell us a dream, but an economist grounding himself in reality.

Basically, here is what you need to remember:

1. The pragmatic approach: He analyzes the numbers, period. If the data isn’t good, he doesn’t budge.
2. Employment and inflation: The labor market remains dynamic, which is good, but inflation is still too high.
3. The timeline: So, for rate cuts, we’ll have to be patient. Investors are now betting more on June.

Tech: AI Costs an Arm and a Leg (For Now)

On the corporate earnings front (Microsoft, Tesla, Meta), the results are mixed. Sure, it’s innovative and magnificent, but investing in artificial intelligence costs hundreds of billions of dollars.

Wall Street is starting to ask the tough question: when will we see profitability?

• Tesla: The stock went on a roller coaster ride. The idea of putting androids on production lines is appealing (no breaks, no unions… for the moment), but expenses are exploding.
• Meta: They are doing well. AI allows them to target us with surgical precision for ads. Roughly put, it’s quite mind-blowing: they know exactly when we eat or sleep to push the right products at the right time.

Technical Analysis: Caution is Key

On the charts, it’s quite disparate. I’ll keep it simple for you:

• CAC 40: It represents weakness, still at the bottom of its range. The 8,200-point mark seems insurmountable for now.
• DAX 40: It has been ranging for two weeks. Over a full week, it barely moves.
• Nasdaq: Watch out here. There is no upward frenzy because investors doubt the rapid profitability of AI. It’s a bit like the early days of the internet: you have to look far ahead.

Gold vs Bitcoin: The Clash of Generations

This is where it gets interesting. Gold is breaking historical records, driven by geopolitical tensions (notably fears linked to Iran).

It’s time to go see your old Aunt Janine: for once, the "old guard" with their physical gold are right over the "youth" and their cryptos. Bitcoin, for its part, is relentlessly hitting a wall under $90,000. It faces a slap down with every attempt.

Conclusion

Be careful today, especially at the US market open (9:30 AM ET). Gold remains an absolute safe haven as long as tensions persist, while Tech is still finding its footing in the face of AI costs. Keep a cool head.

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