Nasdaq Plunge, AI Doubts & Fed Rumors: My Take on the Situation

Hello everyone! I'm going to be frank with you, this is my sixth take this morning due to technical issues, so let's get straight to the point. Yesterday, the market confirmed what I was sensing: an ultra-violent US open. The indices tumbled, and if you followed my advice, you were able to avoid this huge slap in the face to better profit from the rebounds afterward. But why such nervousness when everything seemed calm?

Basically, investors are asking real questions about the profitability of artificial intelligence, coupled with the wait for the future head of the Federal Reserve. It's an explosive cocktail for volatility. I'll explain it all simply.

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1. AI: The End of Blind Euphoria?

What's weighing heavily on the US market right now is doubt. Investors are starting to look at the AI bill and asking themselves: is it really worth it?

We have a striking contrast illustrating this nervousness:

• Microsoft disappointed: The stock took a hit of about -10%. That's huge for such a giant. The fear is that massive investments in AI are cannibalizing their current margins.
• Meta (Facebook) reassures: Conversely, they gained about 10% because AI actually boosted their advertising revenues.

In short, fund managers are "reducing their exposure." They are playing it safe. They aren't fleeing everything, but they're getting out of uncertain positions while waiting for things to clear up.

2. Fed: Trump and the Kevin Warsh Card

The other big topic is politics. Donald Trump has to nominate the successor to the current Fed boss (whose term ends in May). An insistent rumor is circulating: he allegedly met secretly with Kevin Warsh.

Why is this important for your portfolio?

1. The Profile: Warsh is a veteran of the institution, so he reassures Wall Street. He's not an extremist who's going to break everything.
2. The Goal: He favors lowering rates. That's exactly what Trump wants to relaunch the economy before the mid-term elections in 2026.

If confirmed, the market might appreciate this compromise: lowering rates for growth, even if it means handling inflation later (that will be the next guy's problem, after all).

3. Technical Analysis: What the Charts Say

Beyond the rumors, you have to look at the price. Here is what I see on the screens:

• Nasdaq: It took a slap. It's trying to stabilize around 25,750, protected for now by its monthly pivot. If it breaks this level, watch out for the damage.
• S&P 500: Bad sign, it didn't manage to get back above the 7,000 mark. That is technically bearish.
• DAX (Germany): This is the most worrying one in Europe. It has been dropping non-stop for 15 days. If it doesn't bounce off its monthly pivot, it's going to get very complicated.

The Textbook Case of Bitcoin

Frankly, for Bitcoin, no need for smoky theories. It's biblically simple right now: it breaks a support, it collapses (it lost 3,000 dollars after breaking the monthly middle S1). On the other hand, as soon as it touches a major monthly support, it bounces.

It's mechanical. If you aren't watching monthly levels on Bitcoin, it's like driving with your eyes closed. It hit its zone last night, it bounced. That's it.

Gold: Return to Reality

I warned you yesterday: the rise in gold was parabolic, therefore excessive. When it goes up vertically, it always ends up correcting violently. It's done. We've lost nearly 9% from the high. It's healthy and logical profit-taking, back to the "stabilization" square.

Conclusion

Be careful, the market is finding its footing between technological doubts and political waiting games. I won't leave you hanging this weekend, there will be slightly more relaxed videos (I promise, I'll take off the jacket). Until then, watch your monthly levels!

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