A Tense Week Ahead: Central Banks and Analysis

This week, every financial market is holding its breath a little. In fact, we are absolutely going to be guided by the announcements from the major central banks. Frankly, it's the big event investors have been eagerly waiting for. I'm breaking down the key levels we need to watch together so you can stay calm.

The Central Bank Dance 🏦

The Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada are meeting. As a result, policymakers are going to take their time. The Americans will be deliberating for 48 consecutive hours. Wednesday evening, at 8:30 PM, we'll finally get the Fed's speech. Until then, Tuesday is likely to be a very quiet trading day. The market is clearly going to run in slow motion while waiting for what's next.

By the way, JP Morgan's chief economist slipped in a statement. Mr. Bruce Kasman tells us that inflation is going to rise. And that global growth will simply slow down. Honestly, an 8th grader could have guessed that with the current state of oil. Anyway, that's a very well-paid analysis for an ultimately very logical conclusion. We already know there won't be any rate cuts.

Geopolitics and Stock Indices 🌍

Let's talk a bit about the market's chart structure. The Nasdaq is holding up very well in its usual price zone. It's even benefiting a bit from the current war context. Cybersecurity and drone companies are heavily featured in it. My favorite level still remains 24,750 points. The ideal scenario? Pushing above it and quietly bouncing off it right at the open.

Conversely, the Dow Jones is suffering a lot more right now. Faced with maritime uncertainties, industrial companies and insurers are taking a hit. Donald Trump actually claims he can secure the area with a coalition. But finding solid volunteers is quite complicated. France did send its aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean. However, it remains very cautious and is observing from afar. As a result, the Dow Jones has hit its lowest point of the year.

Over in Europe, the CAC 40 is a bit depressed under 8,000 points. Consequently, nobody really wants to buy it or sell it anymore. The German DAX is doing significantly better. It is tightly boxed in between 23,400 and 23,600 points. The situation there is therefore much more stabilized.

The Inertia of Commodities and Cryptos 🛢️

The asymmetry of the situation is reflected across three major assets:

1. Oil is bordering on $100, dampening hopes regarding inflation.
2. Bitcoin is clinging to $71,000, stuck below a strong resistance.
3. Gold is correcting as the general panic slowly subsides.

Basically, all of this works exactly like a spring. At the beginning of a conflict, everyone urgently looks for a safe haven. Then, after three weeks, incredible human adaptability kicks in. Fear gently diminishes. However, pay attention to the technical signals. If gold breaks its 5,000 support, the market will get anxious.

Conclusion

In summary, preserve your capital and avoid exposing yourself before Wednesday. A good mental framework will be of the utmost importance. Discipline will undeniably be your best ally for trading well this week. By the way, I have to go, I'm already late to teach my class!

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