Markets on Hold: FOMC, Geopolitics, and NVIDIA's Impact

This is the fourth time I've recorded this episode! Between the video and the audio deciding to crash for fun, I'm going straight to the point with an ultra-fast rundown. Yesterday, we got exactly the range market (flat, going nowhere) I warned you about. On the Nasdaq, we stayed inside a tight 150-point channel—barely 0.66%. Bottom line: nothing happened. Today, I'll break down this inertia, the key levels to watch, and the major presentation that could shake up the tech world.

1. Market Torpor and the Fed Factor

The market is slow, and that's perfectly logical. Basically, everyone is waiting for the FOMC decision (the U.S. central bank). Specifically, the CME FedWatch tool says 99.1% of investors expect rates to remain unchanged.

As a reminder, the classic setup is that institutional fund managers never take a position 24–48 hours before this kind of event; doing so would be a serious portfolio-management mistake. On top of that, Jerome Powell's remarks will probably matter less than usual. Since he's stepping down in the next two months, the market may listen with only half an ear. By the way, I kind of miss Ben Bernanke at times like this!

2. A Technical Check-In on the Indices

Despite the wait, chart analysis still gives us some valuable clues. 📊

1. The Nasdaq 100: 25,000 is holding up with real conviction. Sellers stepped in right above it—thanks for paying up so we could get a clean confirmation! We then bounced off my favorite level, 24,750.
2. The Dow Jones: It's glued to its lows, unable to muster any energy at all. Honestly, I wouldn't put a dollar into it today.
3. The CAC 40: It managed to save the day around 7,900. But as long as it stays below 8,000, downside pressure remains in control.
4. The DAX 40: Total stability—it's exactly at the same level as yesterday.

3. Geopolitics, Inertia, and AI Progress

On WTI crude, after a brief push toward $100, we're back around $97. Geopolitics isn't really moving. The French president is convening a defense council to join the U.S.-led coalition. Ideally, it would be nice to do that before the war is over! Gold is also stalling around 5,000, right on its monthly pivot. This broad stagnation shows the market isn't feeling major fear: tensions have almost become routine.

On the crypto side, Bitcoin is consolidating cleanly and seems to be eyeing its big symbolic level at €75,000.

At the same time, artificial intelligence is showing strong momentum. Tesla is up 1% after announcing the launch of its "TerraFab" AI buses due in seven days, and Foxconn is posting very solid revenue guidance thanks to supplying AI servers.

4. A Palpable Tension Around NVIDIA

This is the real tension of the day: NVIDIA's CEO is unveiling its new chips today. It's basically an Apple-style keynote, but tuned for artificial intelligence. 🚨

Every word will be scrutinized, because the announcement will lay out a true market roadmap for the next six months to two years.

• A perfect example of asymmetry: If they roll out a breakthrough chip that processes information five times faster, uses 30% less energy, and costs half as much, the stock will literally take off.
• The flip side: If the tech disappoints, NVIDIA's weight is so massive in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 that it could trigger a sharp selloff wave.

Conclusion

So prudence is your best ally today. Tomorrow, the trend will likely stay very flat until the Fed speech. In this seemingly sleepy setup, keep your mental framework intact so you don't get caught the wrong way if an unexpected headline hits. Take care, and I'll see you tomorrow!

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