My market outlook while waiting for Nvidia's earnings

Wall Street is going through a period of high tension. In fact, the calendar is heating up, and with the 30-year US Treasury bond briefly crossing 5.19%, money is becoming more expensive. Add to that a 25% surge on the Nasdaq. In short, the entire market is holding its breath. Let me explain how I am approaching this pivotal day, caught between bond yields and expectations for Nvidia.

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Why this session is crucial

We are in a clear phase of market stratification. On one hand, the pressure on rates complicates the game. On the other, everyone is waiting for the moment of truth for artificial intelligence. Here is the structure of what I'm keeping an eye on today:

1. The bond shock: The 10-year yield is peaking around 4.69%. As a result, why risk your capital on volatile assets? This explains Bitcoin's current inertia.
2. Nvidia's milestone: This is tonight's big event. Staggering revenue figures are expected. I am especially monitoring their technological transition.
3. Oil asymmetry: US inventories are being published today. By the way, the United States cleverly manages its reserves by opening or closing Texan wells depending on prices.

A concrete illustration: the glass ceiling

Basically, the real challenge for Nvidia isn't overall demand. It is, above all, the supply. To better understand, imagine you run an excellent restaurant. You have the capacity to serve 250 covers. Except you only have 120 chairs in the dining room. You order more. The supplier is overloaded and announces a lead time of several months.

Frankly, this is exactly what is hindering current development. The factories producing essential components are running at full capacity. This wait inevitably creates tension.

Technical analysis and index nuances

We need to keep a nuance in mind. Besides, not all indices will react the same way.

Even though the Nasdaq has soared recently, it remains quite uneasy. I would have preferred to see it drop below 28,900 points to trade reintegrations in a calmer mindset. Also watch out for the CAC 40. It often climbs in the morning only to fall back later, with a likely technical drop towards 7,900 points. Conversely, if you're looking for a more solid option in Europe, the DAX is holding up very well around 24,300 points. As for the Dow Jones, it remains very conservative while waiting for the earnings.

Conclusion

In short, this day promises to be explosive. It's the kind of session where capital preservation must take priority over ego. Take care of your positions, strictly favor discipline, and avoid rushing.

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