SpaceX IPO: Between Dream and Reality, What You Need to Know

This is a day that will go down in history: SpaceX, Elon Musk's company, is going public. We're talking about the biggest IPO of all time, raising $75 billion. This event comes in a hyper-euphoric market, even if it has pulled back a bit recently. But beware, behind the magnificent facade, there are important details to understand. I suggest we break down what's really behind this IPO and what the markets are telling us right now.

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SpaceX: Is the Bride Really So Perfect?

When you look closely at the SpaceX offering, you realize you're not just buying SpaceX. Elon Musk had a rather clever idea, which reminds me a bit of the subprime principle. Basically, you take a great product, like SpaceX, which is profitable and has enormous potential. And alongside it, you slip in other, much less appealing assets, like the social network X, which is completely unprofitable.

It's a bit like when I was working in the markets at 13 years old. My boss would tell me to mix the very nice mushrooms with the ones that were a little less fresh. We sold the whole thing as a batch. That's exactly what's happening here. They're selling you the SpaceX dream, but the package also includes 'junk.'

Another sign that should alert us is the opening up of the capital. About 33% of the shares were made available to small investors. Usually, it's more like 10-15%. If the 'big' investors didn't jump on it more eagerly, it's perhaps because they also sensed there were a few rotten mushrooms in the basket.

The Market's Reaction: Measured Optimism

This week is also marked by Donald Trump's announcements about a possible peace deal with Iran. Logically, the markets reacted positively. We saw the Nasdaq gain 300 to 400 points in a few seconds. It's a nice acceleration, for sure.

However, we shouldn't get carried away. If peace were truly signed and certain, we wouldn't have seen the market stop dead at technical levels like the monthly pivot point. The rally was dampened quite quickly. Why? Because it's not the first time Trump has announced peace, and investors are becoming wary. We can feel that negotiations are progressing, but we're waiting to see something concrete. The markets are telling us: 'we believe it, but only halfway'.

What Are Gold and Oil Telling Us?

The analysis of commodities is super interesting right now. On one hand, the price of a barrel of oil is falling, which is logical. If peace is confirmed in such a strategic region, the speculative risk premium, estimated at between 10 and 20 dollars, disappears. We could return to a level of $70-75, which I call the 'gentleman's agreement'—a price that suits both producers and consumers.

On the other hand, and this is where it gets fascinating, gold is rising even as peace is announced. Normally, it should fall. This rise is explained by a rotation of concern. The market is no longer so afraid of the Iranian conflict, but it's starting to fear inflation, especially after the excellent employment figures in the United States. Gold is once again becoming a hedge against this risk.

A Touch of 1602: The First IPO in History

This situation reminds me of the very first initial public offering in history. It was 424 years ago, in 1602 in Amsterdam. The Dutch East India Company opened its capital to everyone, from the simple maid to the King of England. We even have the records of a maid, Mrs. Cornelisse, who invested her savings of 100 florins.

The principle was the same as today: selling a dream of distant routes and the promise of new horizons, at that time the spice trade. But the risk was enormous, with one in four ships never returned. By opening up the capital, they spread this risk among everyone.

Ultimately, in 424 years, only the nature of the ships has changed. We've gone from galleons to rockets. Today, we no longer sell spices, but the promise of a base on the Moon and a colony on Mars. History repeats itself, and it's fascinating.

Conclusion

To conclude, the day is exciting but calls for caution. The euphoria around SpaceX is understandable, but you have to keep a critical mind and look at what's really under the hood. The markets are sending mixed signals, between hopes for peace and fears of inflation. Common sense would suggest not to hold any open positions over the weekend. Trading is not the casino. Stay safe, and have a good weekend! By the way, if you enjoy these topics of history and economics, I'm launching new YouTube channels on Monday; I'll post the links in the comments.

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