File scalping et day trading du Jeudi 17 Février 2022

[Olivier76]

ah un peu d'acheteur a 14200 vont ils tenir ....

[Deejay87]

Je pense vraiment pas que les fonds passent baissier long terme..... d ailleurs les Hedge Fund peuvent mais les gros fonds sont long mais arbitre
Ils attendent juste de l éclaircissement macro et vont racheter
Il y a encore pas mal de liquidités....

[Benoist Rousseau]

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Allez bon appétit les amis. Chili bio et 100% maison. À demain. Good Morning Trading demain à 8h

[StopLoss78]

ouh là, ça pourrait etre chaud cette année, si meme des anciens de la FED de NY s'y mettent ...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-repo-oracle-zoltan-poszar-explains-why-powell-must-crash-market

ex:

We bring all this up today because in a startling note from one of the most respected wall street strategists, repo market guru and former NY FED official, Zoltan Pozsar, he not only echoes all of our "tinfoil conspiratorial" thoughts but even goes one step further suggesting that "We need a Volcker moment… a Volcker moment, where Vol stands for “vol” – as in volatility." In other words, Pozsar writes that the FED needs to crash the market to contain stocks.

Why? Because the FED currently finds itself in a lose-lose situation, one where both choices are equally devastating - spark a recession or crash the market, or most likely both. As Rabobank's Michael Every writes today summarizing the FED's predicament, "more worrying is that [the FOMC] were non-committal about what the FED will do AT its March meeting because the FED has no idea what to do. All its choices are bad. There is no oasis ahead, as markets like to believe. There is no FED ‘masterplan’ to stop Inflation without stopping either the asset-price appreciation we’ve built markets on for decades, or the faux appreciation for the working class we’ve built markets on the backs of for decades, or both."

[Deejay87]

Bon app

[Stochastic]

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[StopLoss78]

Still, Zoltan is confident that "lower risk assets won’t kill growth" (oh yes it will), and his solution to contain Inflation and "to improve labor supply, the FED might try to put volatility in its service to engineer a correction in house prices and risk assets – equities, credit, and Bitcoin too…"

In short: crash everything.

While many would have previously dismissed this proposal as the deranged rambling of a "conspiracy theory" website such as this one (with the one asterisk, of course, that all conspiracy theories discussed here eventually come true) the fact that a former FED staffer - one who has both the NY FED and Powell's ear - is suggesting a market crash as a much needed inflationary catharsis should spark great fear among the market bulls who still expect Powell to step in and do what he did in March 2020 when the FED started buying up risk assets for the first time.

Incidentally, while Powell may ignore the collapse in stocks, it is the upcoming implosion in the increasingly illiquid credit and bond markets (discussed here two days ago) that will shock the FED out of its stupor when the central bank (and Pozsar) see the US economy grinding to a halt as interest rates explode higher in a crisis that will make March 2020 seem like child's play by comparison.

So while it is debatable that the FED will crash the market just to contain Inflation (we sincerely doubt it), the fact is that merci to the former NY FED repo guru, this is now a part of the conversation and it is likely that as Zoltan's view gains traction, Biden will confront the FED chair with just this choice: shock the markets, crash stocks, and hammer Inflation before the midterms (and certainly 2024) as the alternative is a historic rout for the Biden admin and Democrats.

[TREVE T-1000]

je viens de fermer mon short car pas sur qu on va avoir le temps pour le 14097

[khubiwinch]

Bravo Treve

[Olivier76]

Bonne pizza Royale bien mérité Treve

[Deejay87]

Bien jouer trêve
Tu avais pris a quel niveau ta position ? Break 14370 ou 14320 ?

[lskr]

Bravo Treve, dingues ces ding ding 8

bonne fin de journée /soirée

[Shady]

Bravo Treve, et bon appétit.

Belle soirée à tous, demain trading !

[Olivier76]

oh les bougies du bouquet finale

[Fasas]

L'équation à résoudre par la FED,
- faire baisser l'inflation
- ne pas mettre l'économie en récession
- ne pas faire effondrer les marchés (le bilan de la FED à 7000 milliards d'Assets, chose quelle n'avait pas en 2007.
Bullard teste les marchés par ses interventions pour faire digérer l'augmentation de taux.
Le marché est entrain de valider la hausse de 1%.
Il interviendra avec de nouvelles propositions d'augmentation avant l'été, si l'inflation perdure.
Il pratique la politique des petits pas, bien connu par les Andlilsien/ne

[Saidfed]

. Quelle journée sur le nasdaq. J étais loin de tout ça aujourd'hui. Mais -3% c'est pas anodin quand même.
Les shorteur doivent être aux anges !

[TREVE T-1000]

Deejay87

le dernier short je l avais prit a 14273 et j ai fermer a 14202

quand le spx a defoncer son creux du jours

[Timi]

Bonne nuit à tous, journée verte pour moi donc content

à demain

[TREVE T-1000]

merci a tous
et bonne soirée a tous

encore pogner pour manger de la pizza

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[Fasas]

pizza bien méritée TREVE