Après tout c'est juste le compte rendu de quelque chose qui a déjà été traité il y a quelques semaines
En bas de la boite > en haut de la boite 
Bon j'ai modifié un truc dans mon trading. Je ne rentrerais plus jamais en milieux de chemin. Toujours rentrer sur des zone moelleux chocolat ou rien du tout (sauf pour éventuellement renforcé si j'ai réussi à avoir la base)
Toujours très tendu et indécis
Ah bah voilà, on up
Reintegration oblique et on repart 
Edit : propre
Edit : belle bagarre. J'adore cette tension perceptible
Edit : propre
Edit : belle bagarre. J'adore cette tension perceptible
l entete va suffire je crois
spx encore le plus rouge en %
Bobo
moi j attend un gros gros down
tic tac tic tac
moi j attend un gros gros down
tic tac tic tac
bonsoir à tous, bon j'ai voulu tradé en voiture, grosse erreur, journée pour le moment bien nul
trader en voiture 
on ne trade pas dans le sens contraire du spx en % , cest 2 fois pire que le nq
Snowball attention à toi quand même, parole de praticien
Développements des marchés financiers et des opérations d’open
market Le directeur pro tem s’est d’abord penché sur une discussion sur l’évolution des marchés financiers au cours de la période inter-réunions. Les conditions financières aux États-Unis se sont resserrées au cours de la période, reflétant en grande partie une révision à la hausse des perspectives des investisseurs quant à l’évolution du taux directeur. Les rendements des bons du trésor ont considérablement augmenté, la majeure partie de la hausse se reflétant dans les rendements réels. Les cours des actions ont d’abord augmenté dans un contexte de résultats du deuxième trimestre qui étaient meilleurs que prévu, mais ont ensuite retracé ces gains en réponse à l’évolution des perspectives de la politique. En ce qui concerne l’évolution internationale, les rendements dans la plupart des économies étrangères avancées (APE) ont également fortement augmenté, un certain nombre d’autres banques centrales ayant relevé leurs taux directeurs et indiqué dans leurs communications qu’elles continueraient probablement à resserrer leur Politique monétaire afin de faire face aux pressions inflationnistes. La valeur d’échange du dollar s’est particulièrement appréciée, atteignant des sommets de plusieurs décennies en termes réels, les acteurs du marché percevant des défis économiques croissants à l’étranger.
La trajectoire implicite du taux des fonds fédéraux a fortement augmenté après que les acteurs du marché ont interprété les communications de la Réserve fédérale – en particulier celles fournies lors du symposium de Jackson Hole – ainsi que les données entrantes, comme indiquant une trajectoire de politique plus restrictive que prévu. Les taux sensibles à la Politique monétaire laissaient entendre qu’une augmentation de 75 points de base de la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux devait être décidée lors de la réunion du Comité en septembre, avec une certaine possibilité d’un mouvement de 100 points de base. En outre, la trajectoire implicite du marché suggérait des probabilités raisonnables d’augmentations de taux supplémentaires de 75 points de base et de 50 points de base lors des réunions de novembre et de décembre, respectivement. Les acteurs du marché s’attendaient généralement à un nouveau ralentissement du rythme des hausses de taux après décembre, le taux directeur ayant atteint son sommet au premier semestre de 2023. Au-delà de cette période, la trajectoire implicite du taux des fonds fédéraux a diminué, reflétant probablement les risques à la baisse qui pèsent sur la trajectoire du taux directeur. Le répondant médian aux enquêtes Open Market Desk s’attendait à ce que la trajectoire du taux directeur reste stable jusqu’en 2023 après que le taux maximal ait été atteint. En moyenne, les répondants à l’enquête Desk ont attribué une probabilité de près de 30% à une baisse du Produit intérieur brut (pib) réel en 2022, soit près du double de la probabilité attribuée dans l’enquête de juillet.
Le directeur pro tem s’est ensuite penché sur une discussion sur la mise en œuvre des politiques. Le ruissellement du bilan s’est poursuivi sans heurts au cours de la période d’interméenciation. Avec le doublement des plafonds de rachat de titres du Trésor et de titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires (MBS) d’agences en septembre, le rythme du ruissellement du bilan devrait augmenter au cours des prochains mois. Les marchés des titres du Trésor et des MBS d’agence ont continué de fonctionner de manière ordonnée, bien que les conditions de liquidité sur les deux marchés soient restées faibles, reflétant une incertitude élevée sur les taux d’intérêt.
Sur les marchés monétaires, l’augmentation de 75 points de base de la fourchette cible lors de la réunion de juillet s’est entièrement répercutée sur les taux au jour le jour. Dans un contexte de forte demande d’investissements à court terme, l’utilisation de l’installation d’accord de prise en pension au jour le jour (ON RRP) a été relativement stable à des niveaux élevés.
Le personnel a continué de s’attendre à ce que l’utilisation du RRP de l’ON diminue au cours des prochains trimestres par rapport à ses niveaux actuellement élevés, à mesure que les participants au marché monétaire réagiraient à l’évolution des conditions. L’émission de titres à court terme était susceptible d’augmenter au cours des périodes à venir et, à mesure que les perspectives économiques et politiques s’éclaircissaient, la demande d’actifs à court terme pourrait ralentir. Ces deux évolutions atténueraient la pression à la baisse sur les rendements des placements sûrs à court terme. La réduction progressive des soldes du RRP on pourrait également être facilitée par la concurrence croissante entre les banques dans la recherche de dépôts. Le directeur a indiqué que le personnel continuerait de suivre de près l’évolution du marché monétaire afin d’évaluer si des frictions apparaissaient dans ce processus.
Le directeur pro tem a conclu par une mise à jour sur les questions opérationnelles. Comme prévu, le bénéfice net de la Réserve fédérale est devenu négatif en septembre. Le personnel s’attendait à ce que la taille de l’actif différé associé augmente au fil du temps jusqu’à ce que le bénéfice net devienne positif, probablement dans quelques années. Le Bureau prévoyait de commencer à agréger les MBS d’agence détenus dans le compte d’open market du système (SOMA) qui ne sont pas admissibles à être mélangés dans le MBS uniforme et, plus précisément, le MBS Freddie Mac qui ont été émis avant juin 2019 et qui ont un retard de paiement de 45 jours; les décisions concernant toute agrégation supplémentaire seraient prises à une date ultérieure.
Par un vote unanime, le Comité a ratifié les transactions nationales du Bureau au cours de la période inter-réunions. Il n’y a pas eu d’opérations d’intervention en devises étrangères pour le compte du Système pendant la période d’interméecement.
Examen de la situation
économique par le personnel Les informations disponibles au moment de la réunion des 20 et 21 septembre suggéraient que le pib réel des États-Unis augmentait à un rythme modeste au troisième trimestre après avoir diminué au cours du premier semestre de l’année. La demande de main-d’œuvre est restée forte et le marché du travail a continué d’être très tendu. Des lectures mensuelles récentes ont indiqué que l’Inflation des prix à la consommation – mesurée par la variation en pourcentage sur 12 mois de l’indice des prix des dépenses de consommation personnelle (ECP) – est demeurée élevée.
L’emploi salarié non agricole total a affiché de solides hausses en juillet et en août à un rythme moyen qui n’était que légèrement inférieur à ce qui a été observé au cours de la première moitié de l’année. Le taux de chômage a légèrement augmenté, sur le net, passant de 3,6% en juin à 3,7% en août. Le taux de chômage des Afro-Américains a augmenté au cours de cette période, tandis que le taux des Hispaniques a légèrement augmenté sur le net; les deux taux étaient sensiblement plus élevés que la moyenne nationale. Le taux d’activité et le ratio emploi-population ont tous deux augmenté, sur le net, de juin à août. Le taux d’offres d’emploi dans le Secteur privé, tel que mesuré par l’Enquête sur les offres d’emploi et le roulement de la main-d’œuvre, a légèrement diminué de mai à juillet, mais est resté à un niveau élevé. La croissance des salaires nominaux a continué d’être rapide et généralisée : la rémunération horaire moyenne a augmenté de 5,2 % au cours de la période de 12 mois se terminant en août, tandis que l’indice du coût de l’emploi de la rémunération horaire dans le Secteur privé, qui comprend également les coûts des avantages sociaux, a augmenté de 5,5 % au cours de la période de 12 mois se terminant en juin, soit 2,4 points de pourcentage de plus que le rythme de l’année précédente.
L’Inflation des prix à la consommation est restée élevée. L’Inflation totale des prix pce pce s’est établie à 6,3 % au cours des 12 mois se terminant en juillet, et l’Inflation des prix pcE de base, qui exclut les variations des prix de l’énergie à la consommation et de nombreux prix des aliments à la consommation, a été de 4,6 % au cours de la même période. La mesure moyenne réduite de l’Inflation des prix PCE sur 12 mois construite par la Federal Reserve Bank de Dallas était de 4,4% en juillet. En août, la variation sur 12 mois de l’indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) était de 8,3 %, tandis que l’Inflation mesurée par l’IPC de base était de 6,3 % au cours de la même période. Les mesures des anticipations d’Inflation à court terme fondées sur des enquêtes ont diminué au cours des dernières semaines, tandis que les mesures des attentes d’Inflation à long terme sont demeurées à peu près stables ou ont baissé.
Les indicateurs de dépenses disponibles, y compris le rapport sur les ventes au détail d’août, suggèrent que l’ECP réel était en voie d’afficher une hausse modeste au troisième trimestre. Cependant, les dernières données sur le marché de l’habitation indiquaient une autre forte contraction de l’investissement résidentiel au troisième trimestre, et l’investissement fixe des entreprises semblait augmenter à un rythme tiède.
Real goods exports stepped up in June and then rose further in July, led by increases in exports of industrial supplies. By contrast, real goods imports stepped down in June and then fell sharply in July, driven by a large decline in consumer goods imports. Exports and imports of services continued to be held back by an incomplete recovery of international travel. The nominal U.S. international trade deficit continued to narrow in June and July. Altogether, net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in the second quarter and appeared on track to make another positive contribution in the third quarter.
Data pointed to weak foreign growth in recent months, weighed down by the global reverberations from Russia's war against Ukraine and a loss of momentum in the Chinese economy. In Europe, further disruptions to the supply of energy exacerbated declines in real disposable incomes and in consumer and business confidence, restraining economic activity. In China, recent indicators suggest only a partial rebound from the effects of earlier severe COVID-19-related lockdowns as well as increasing concerns about the property sector. Weaker growth in China and the broader global economy also weighed on export-oriented emerging market economies in Asia. Consumer price Inflation rose further in August in many foreign economies, reflecting past increases in energy and food prices, but also a continued broadening of inflationary pressure to core prices. With Inflation persistently high, many central banks continued to tighten monetary policy.
Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Over the intermeeting period, U.S. Treasury yields and the market-implied federal funds rate path moved higher. Broad domestic equity price indexes decreased slightly, on balance, but market volatility remained elevated. Credit remained widely available to most types of borrowers, but increases in borrowing costs appeared to damp the demand for credit in some markets in recent months. Measures of current loan performance for businesses and most households remained generally stable. However, more recently, expectations of future credit quality for businesses deteriorated slightly, and delinquency rates rose for some types of credit owed by households with low credit scores.
The expected path of the federal funds rate—implied by a straight read of financial market quotes—rose in the period since the July FOMC meeting, largely reflecting more-restrictive-than-expected monetary policy communications amid stronger-than-expected economic data and ongoing concerns about high Inflation. On net, nominal Treasury yields increased significantly across the maturity spectrum. The increases in nominal Treasury yields were primarily accounted for by rising real yields, while Inflation Compensation measures declined substantially AT short horizons and remained relatively little changed AT medium- and longer-term horizons.
Broad equity price indexes decreased slightly, on net, as substantial early gains arising from investors' improved perceptions about the Inflation outlook and better-than-feared second-quarter earnings were more than offset by later losses arising from expectations that the Committee would follow a more restrictive policy than previously expected. One‑month option-implied volatility on the S&P 500—the vix—increased somewhat, on net, and remained elevated by historical norms, partly reflecting investor uncertainty and risks associated with higher Inflation and the expected move to a restrictive policy stance. Corporate bond spreads narrowed slightly, on net, and remained roughly AT the midpoints of their historical distributions. Reflecting increases in both policy rates and corporate bond spreads, yields on corporate bonds rose significantly since the start of the year. Municipal bond spreads over comparable-maturity Treasury yields widened a touch.
Conditions in short-term funding markets remained stable over the intermeeting period, with the July increase in the Federal Reserve's administered interest rates passing through quickly to other money market rates. Although secured overnight rates firmed slightly later in the intermeeting period, they remained soft relative to the ON RRP offering rate—a configuration that market participants attributed to relatively low Treasury bill supply combined with strong investor demand for short-dated instruments amid uncertainty about the future path of the policy rate. Consistent with continued softness in repurchase agreement rates, daily take-up in the ON RRP facility remained elevated. Spreads on lower-rated short-term commercial paper changed little on net. Bank deposit rates continued to increase modestly in August, following a lagged response to increases in the federal funds rate, while money market mutual funds' net yields rose along with the increases in short-term rates.
Sovereign yields in most AFEs rose notably over the intermeeting period as major central banks raised their policy rates and communicated a tighter stance of future policy in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. Yields on Japanese government securities, however, ended the period little changed, as the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its accommodative monetary policy stance. Measures of foreign Inflation Compensation were volatile amid large swings in European natural gas prices but increased moderately on net. The U.S. dollar appreciated further against most major currencies, reaching multi-decade highs against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The dollar's strength largely reflected increasing investor concerns about the global growth outlook as well as widening interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan. Growth concerns also weighed on foreign equity prices, which declined moderately. Outflows from funds dedicated to emerging markets continued AT a modest pace, and credit spreads in emerging market economies narrowed somewhat on net.
In domestic credit markets, borrowing costs continued to rise over the intermeeting period. Yields on both corporate bonds and institutional leveraged loans increased. Bank interest rates for commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans also increased. Among small businesses that borrow on a regular basis, the share of firms facing higher borrowing costs continued to climb through August. Municipal bond yields increased across ratings categories. Borrowing costs for residential mortgage loans increased and reached their highest levels since 2008. Interest rates on most credit card accounts continued to move higher, in line with the rise in the federal funds rate, and auto loan interest rates rose steadily through August.
Credit remained generally available to businesses and households, but high borrowing costs appeared to reduce the demand for credit, resulting in lower financing volumes in some markets. Issuance of nonfinancial corporate bonds slowed further in July from the weak levels seen in the second quarter but rebounded somewhat in August and so far in September. Gross institutional leveraged loan issuance increased modestly in July from subdued levels but continued to be weak in August. Equity issuance remained depressed, while issuance of municipal bonds was sluggish over the summer and so far in September.
According to the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tightened credit standards on C&I lending for the first time in two years, but C&I loans on banks' balance sheets expanded AT a strong pace in July and August, reflecting strong demand from nonfinancial businesses. CRE loans on banks' balance sheets also continued to grow robustly, but issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) slowed in July from its strong pace earlier in the year. Credit availability to small businesses appeared to be tightening somewhat. The share of small firms reporting that it was more difficult to obtain loans continued its upward trend in August but remained lower than its historical average.
Credit in the residential mortgage market remained available for high-credit-score borrowers. Credit availability for low-credit-score borrowers continued to ease through July but remained modestly tight—close to pre-pandemic averages. However, the volumes of both home-purchase and refinance mortgage originations plunged in July amid rising mortgage rates. Consumer credit remained available to most households in June and July, but about half of the respondents in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that it was harder to obtain credit than it was a year earlier and that they expected it to become even harder over the next year.
The credit quality of nonfinancial corporations remained generally strong, with low default rates for both corporate bonds and leveraged loans. The volume of rating upgrades in the corporate bond market outpaced that of downgrades in July and August, but, so far in September, these relative volumes reversed. The volume of rating downgrades in the leveraged loan market continued to exceed that of upgrades. Credit quality for C&I and CRE loans on banks' balance sheets also remained sound, as delinquency rates remained AT low levels through June. However, banks increased loan loss provisions somewhat in the second quarter. Delinquency rates on CRE loans securitized into CMBS remained unchanged in July, delinquency rates on small business loans stayed quite low after edging up, and the credit quality of municipal securities remained strong.
Household credit quality stayed broadly solid but continued to worsen for some types of credit owed by borrowers with low credit scores. Mortgage delinquencies trended down in recent months, and the share of mortgages in foreclosure remained low in July. By contrast, credit card and auto credit delinquency rates rose over the second quarter, particularly among subprime borrowers, with subprime auto loan delinquency rates rebounding notably to slightly above their historical averages.
Staff Economic Outlook
The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the September FOMC meeting was slightly weaker than the July forecast. However, the staff's estimate of potential output in recent history was revised down significantly in response to continued disappointing productivity growth and the sluggish gains in labor force participation seen so far this year; moreover, this lower trajectory for potential output was expected to persist throughout the forecast period. As a result, the staff's estimate of the output gap was revised up considerably this year, and while the staff projection still had the output gap closing in coming years, the level of output was expected to be slightly above potential AT the end of 2025. Likewise, the unemployment rate was expected to rise more slowly than in the July projection and to be slightly below the staff's estimate of its natural rate AT the end of 2025.
On a 12-month change basis, total PCE price Inflation was expected to be 5.1 percent in 2022, and core Inflation was expected to be 4.3 percent. Although the staff continued to project that core Inflation would step down over the next two years—reflecting the anticipated resolution of supply–demand imbalances and a labor market that was expected to become less tight—core Inflation was revised up in each year of the projection. In 2025, core Inflation was expected to be 2.1 percent. total PCE price Inflation was expected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2023 as core Inflation slowed and energy prices declined. total PCE Inflation was expected to move down further in 2024, to 2 percent, and to remain AT 2 percent in 2025.
The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside. In addition to Russia's war in Ukraine, weakening activity abroad, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, the possibility that a persistent reduction in Inflation could require a greater-than-assumed amount of tightening in financial conditions was viewed by the staff as a salient downside risk to their forecast for real activity. The staff viewed the risks to the Inflation projection as skewed to the upside on the grounds that supply conditions might not improve as much as expected and energy prices might rise sharply again. The staff also pointed to the possibility that wage increases could put a greater-than-expected amount of upward pressure on price Inflation and the possibility that Inflation expectations could become unanchored given the large rise in Inflation seen over the past year as additional upside risks to the Inflation forecast.
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and Inflation for each year from 2022 through 2025 and over the longer run, based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate. The longer-run projections represented each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. A Summary of Economic Projections was released to the public following the conclusion of the meeting.
In their discussion of current economic conditions, participants noted that recent indicators had pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Participants recognized that Russia's war against Ukraine was causing tremendous human and economic hardship. Participants judged that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on Inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. Against this background, participants remained highly attentive to Inflation risks.
With regard to the economic outlook, participants noted that recent data pointed to modest growth in economic activity over the second half of this year. Participants observed that recent indicators of consumer spending and business investment suggested modest increases in those spending categories but noted that activity in interest-sensitive sectors weakened appreciably. Participants revised down their projections of real GDP growth for this year from their projections in June. Several participants noted that the continued strength in the labor market, as well as the data on gross domestic income, raised the possibility that the current GDP data could understate the strength in economic activity this year. Participants generally anticipated that the U.S. economy would grow AT a below-trend pace in this and the coming few years, with the labor market becoming less tight, as monetary policy assumed a restrictive stance and global headwinds persisted. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth would help reduce inflationary pressures and set the stage for the sustained achievement of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
In their discussion of the household sector, participants noted that consumer spending grew moderately, reflecting strength in the labor market, the elevated level of household savings accumulated during the pandemic, and a strong aggregate household-sector balance sheet. Several participants noted that spending appeared to have held up relatively well, especially among higher-income households. These participants also noted that the composition of spending by low-to-moderate-income households—who were affected to a greater degree by high food, energy, and shelter prices—was changing, with discretionary expenditures being cut and purchases shifting to lower-cost options. Participants observed that the notable slowdown in residential investment and other interest-sensitive spending had continued, reflecting the effect of the Committee's monetary policy actions and tighter financial conditions.
With regard to the business sector, participants observed that growth in investment spending appeared modest. Several participants mentioned that manufacturing activity had slowed. A couple of participants noted that businesses were constrained in undertaking new capital projects, as they faced higher financing costs, persistent challenges associated with supply bottlenecks, and hiring difficulties resulting from the continued tightness of the labor market.
Participants discussed how they perceived challenging supply conditions to be evolving. Many participants remarked that their business contacts were reporting signs of relief in supply bottlenecks, such as declines in shipping costs and delivery times and rising inventories, while several participants saw little improvement in the supply situation. Participants saw supply bottlenecks as likely continuing for a while longer, and a couple commented that constraints on production were increasingly taking the form of labor shortages rather than parts shortages.
Participants observed that the labor market had remained very tight, as evidenced by a historically low unemployment rate, elevated job vacancies and quit rates, a low pace of layoffs, robust employment gains, and high nominal wage growth. A few participants remarked that employers facing particularly acute labor shortages were those associated with professional occupations, service industries, skilled trades, and smaller firms. Some participants noted a number of developments consistent with the labor market moving toward better balance, including a lower rate of job turnover, a moderation in employment growth, and an increase in the labor force participation rate for prime-age workers. However, several participants assessed that the scope for further improvement in labor force participation was likely limited, especially in view of the sizable contribution that retirements had made to the previous decline in the participation rate.
Participants anticipated that the supply and demand imbalances in the labor market would gradually diminish and the unemployment rate would likely rise somewhat, importantly reflecting the effects of tighter monetary policy. Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices. Participants expected that the transition toward a softer labor market would be accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. Several commented that they considered it likely that the transition would occur primarily through reduced job vacancies and slower job creation. A couple of participants remarked that, in light of challenges in hiring, businesses might be less willing to reduce their staffing levels in the event of a weakening in general economic activity. A few participants particularly stressed the high uncertainty associated with the expected future path of the unemployment rate and commented that the unemployment rate could rise by considerably more than in the staff forecast.
Participants observed that Inflation remained unacceptably high and well above the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent. Participants commented that recent Inflation data generally had come in above expectations and that, correspondingly, Inflation was declining more slowly than they had previously been anticipating. Price pressures had remained elevated and had persisted across a broad array of product categories. Energy prices had declined in recent months but remained considerably higher than in 2021, and upside risks to energy prices remained. Several participants noted the continued elevated rates of increase in core goods prices. These participants considered this development as potentially indicating that the shift of household spending from goods to services might be having a smaller effect on goods prices than they expected or that the supply bottlenecks and labor shortages were taking longer to be resolved. Participants commented that they expected Inflation pressures to persist in the near term. Numerous contributing factors were cited as supporting this view, including labor market tightness and the resulting upward pressure on nominal wages, continuing supply chain disruptions, and the persistent nature of increases in services prices, particularly shelter prices.
With respect to the medium term, participants judged that Inflation pressures would gradually recede in coming years. Various factors were cited as likely to contribute to this outcome, including the Committee's tightening of its policy stance, a gradual easing of supply and demand imbalances in labor and product markets, and the likelihood that weaker consumer demand would result in a reduction of business profit margins from their current elevated levels. A few participants reported that business contacts in certain retail sectors—such as used cars and apparel—were planning to cut prices in order to help reduce their inventories. Several participants commented that while households across the income distribution were burdened by elevated Inflation, those AT the lower end of the income distribution were particularly harmed, as a larger share of their income was spent on housing and other necessities.
In assessing Inflation expectations, participants noted that longer-term expectations appeared to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters as well as measures obtained from financial markets. Participants remarked that the Committee's affirmation of its strong commitment to its price-stability objective, together with its forceful policy actions, had likely helped keep longer-run Inflation expectations anchored. Some stressed that a more prolonged period of elevated Inflation would increase the risk of Inflation expectations becoming unanchored, making it much more costly to bring Inflation down. A few participants discussed the increased dispersion of longer-term Inflation expectations across respondents in various surveys, with an increase in the number of respondents reporting relatively low expectations of future Inflation acknowledged as a key driver of the increased dispersion but with a couple of participants citing higher Inflation expectations among some survey respondents as a cause for concern and a reason not to be complacent about longer-term Inflation expectations remaining well anchored.
Participants agreed that the uncertainty associated with their economic outlooks was high and that risks to their Inflation outlook were weighted to the upside. Some participants noted rising labor tensions, a new round of global energy price increases, further disruptions in supply chains, and a larger-than-expected pass-through of wage increases into price increases as potential shocks that, if they materialized, could compound an already challenging Inflation problem. A number of participants commented that a wage–price spiral had not yet developed but cited its possible emergence as a risk.
Participants broadly judged the risks to real GDP growth to be weighted to the downside, with various global headwinds most prominently cited as contributing factors. These global headwinds included heightened risk of recession in Europe, a slowdown in economic activity occurring in China, and the ongoing global economic implications of Russia's war against Ukraine. Several participants noted that the monetary policy tightening under way in many other economies would affect global financial markets and foreign real GDP growth, with the potential for spillovers to the U.S. economy.
In their consideration of the appropriate stance of monetary policy, participants concurred that the labor market was very tight and that Inflation was far above the Committee's 2 percent Inflation objective. Participants observed that recent indicators of production and spending had pointed to modest growth, while job gains had been robust and the unemployment rate had remained low. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 75 basis points AT this meeting and to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that the Committee issued in May. Policymakers observed that the rate hike AT this meeting was another step toward making the Committee's monetary policy stance sufficiently restrictive to help ease supply and demand imbalances and to bring Inflation back to 2 percent. Participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning Inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective, with many stressing the importance of staying on this course even as the labor market slowed.
In discussing potential policy actions AT upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. Participants judged that the Committee needed to move to, and then maintain, a more restrictive policy stance in order to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Many participants noted that, with Inflation well above the Committee's 2 percent objective and showing little sign so far of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy continuing, they had raised their assessment of the path of the federal funds rate that would likely be needed to achieve the Committee's goals. Participants judged that the pace and extent of policy rate increases would continue to depend on the implications of incoming information for the outlook for economic activity and Inflation and on risks to the outlook. Several participants noted that, particularly in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants observed that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it would become appropriate AT some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and Inflation. Many participants indicated that, once the policy rate had reached a sufficiently restrictive level, it likely would be appropriate to maintain that level for some time until there was compelling evidence that Inflation was on course to return to the 2 percent objective. Participants noted that, in keeping with the Committee's Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, balance sheet runoff had moved up to its maximum planned pace in September and would continue AT that pace. They further observed that a significant reduction in the Committee's holdings of securities was in progress and that this process was contributing to the move to a restrictive policy stance. A couple of participants remarked that, after the process of balance sheet reduction was well under way, it would be appropriate for the Committee to consider sales of agency MBS in order to enable suitable progress toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composed primarily of Treasury securities.
In their assessment of the effects of policy actions and communications to date, participants concurred that the Committee's actions to raise expeditiously the target range for the federal funds rate demonstrated its resolve to lower Inflation to 2 percent and to keep Inflation expectations anchored AT levels consistent with that longer-run goal. Participants noted that the Committee's commitment to restoring price stability, together with its purposeful policy actions and communications, had contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions over the past year that would likely help reduce Inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand. Participants observed that this tightening had led to substantial increases in real interest rates across the maturity spectrum. Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. They noted also that Inflation had not yet responded appreciably to policy tightening and that a significant reduction in Inflation would likely lag that of aggregate demand. Participants observed that a period of real GDP growth below its trend rate, very likely accompanied by some softening in labor market conditions, was required. They agreed that, by moving its policy purposefully toward an appropriately restrictive stance, the Committee would help ensure that elevated Inflation did not become entrenched and that Inflation expectations did not become unanchored. These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high Inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.
In light of the broad-based and unacceptably high level of Inflation, the intermeeting news of higher-than-expected Inflation, and upside risks to the Inflation outlook, participants remarked that purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down Inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down Inflation. Several participants observed that as policy moved into restrictive territory, risks would become more two-sided, reflecting the emergence of the downside risk that the cumulative restraint in aggregate demand would exceed what was required to bring Inflation back to 2 percent. A few of these participants noted that this possibility was heightened by factors beyond the Committee's actions, including the tightening of monetary policy stances abroad and the weakening global economic outlook, that were also likely to restrain domestic economic activity in the period ahead.
Committee Policy Action
In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that recent indicators had pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Members also concurred that job gains had been robust in recent months and the unemployment rate had remained low. Members agreed that Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.
Members observed that Russia's war against Ukraine was causing tremendous human and economic hardship. They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on Inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. Members remarked that they remained highly attentive to Inflation risks.
In their assessment of the monetary policy stance necessary for achieving the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipated that ongoing increases in the target range would be appropriate. In addition, members agreed that the Committee would continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency MBS, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet issued in May.
Members agreed that, in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, they would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and that they would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerged that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. They also noted that their assessments would take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, Inflation pressures and Inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Members affirmed that the Committee was strongly committed to returning Inflation to its 2 percent objective.
AT the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release AT 2:00 p.m.:
"Effective September 22, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3 to 3-1/4 percent.
Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum Bid rate of 3.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased AT the discretion of the Chair.
Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations AT an offering rate of 3.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased AT the discretion of the Chair.
roll over AT auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
Réinvestissez dans les titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires (MBS) d’agence le montant des paiements de capital provenant des avoirs de la Réserve fédérale en dette d’agence et MBS d’agence reçus au cours de chaque mois civil qui dépasse un plafond de 35 milliards de dollars par mois.
Permettre des écarts modestes par rapport aux montants déclarés pour les réinvestissements, si nécessaire pour des raisons opérationnelles.
S’engager dans des transactions de swap de dollars et de coupons si nécessaire pour faciliter le règlement des transactions MBS de l’agence de la Réserve fédérale.
Le vote a également porté sur l’approbation de la déclaration ci-dessous pour publication à 14 h 00 :
« Les indicateurs récents indiquent une croissance modeste des dépenses et de la production. Les gains d’emplois ont été robustes au cours des derniers mois, et le taux de chômage est demeuré faible. L’Inflation reste élevée, reflétant les déséquilibres de l’offre et de la demande liés à la pandémie, la hausse des prix des aliments et de l’énergie et les pressions plus larges sur les prix.
La guerre de la Russie contre l’Ukraine cause d’énormes difficultés humaines et économiques. La guerre et les événements connexes créent une pression à la hausse supplémentaire sur l’Inflation et pèsent sur l’activité économique mondiale. Le Comité est très attentif aux risques d’Inflation.
Le Comité cherche à atteindre un taux d’emploi et d’Inflation maximal de 2 % à long terme. À l’appui de ces objectifs, le Comité a décidé de relever la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux à 3 à 3-1/4 % et prévoit que des augmentations continues de la fourchette cible seront appropriées. En outre, le Comité continuera de réduire ses avoirs en titres du Trésor et en titres de créance d’agence et en titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires d’agence, comme décrit dans les Plans de réduction de la taille du bilan de la Réserve fédérale qui ont été publiés en mai. Le Comité est fermement résolu à ramener l’Inflation à son objectif de 2 %.
Lorsqu’il évaluera l’orientation appropriée de la Politique monétaire, le Comité continuera de surveiller les répercussions des informations reçues sur les perspectives économiques. Le Comité serait prêt à ajuster l’orientation de la Politique monétaire selon qu’il conviendrait si des risques surgissent qui pourraient entraver la réalisation des objectifs du Comité. Les évaluations du Comité tiendront compte d’un large éventail d’informations, y compris des lectures sur la santé publique, les conditions du marché du travail, les pressions inflationnistes et les attentes d’Inflation, ainsi que les développements financiers et internationaux.
Vote en faveur de cette action : Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, Esther L. George, Philip N. Jefferson, Loretta J. Mester et Christopher J. Waller.
Vote contre cette action: Aucun.
Pour appuyer la décision du Comité de relever la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux, le Conseil des gouverneurs de la Réserve fédérale a voté à l’unanimité en faveur d’une augmentation du taux d’intérêt payé sur les soldes des réserves à 3,15 %, à compter du 22 septembre 2022. Le Conseil des gouverneurs de la Réserve fédérale a voté à l’unanimité pour approuver une augmentation de 3/4 de point de pourcentage du taux de crédit primaire à 3,25%, à compter du 22 septembre 2022.6
Il a été convenu que la prochaine réunion du Comité se tiendra du mardi 1er au mercredi 2 novembre 2022. La séance est levée à 10 h 20 le 21 septembre 2022.
Vote
de notation Par vote de notation complété le 16 août 2022, le Comité a approuvé à l’unanimité le procès-verbal de la réunion du Comité tenue du 26 au 27 juillet 2022.
market Le directeur pro tem s’est d’abord penché sur une discussion sur l’évolution des marchés financiers au cours de la période inter-réunions. Les conditions financières aux États-Unis se sont resserrées au cours de la période, reflétant en grande partie une révision à la hausse des perspectives des investisseurs quant à l’évolution du taux directeur. Les rendements des bons du trésor ont considérablement augmenté, la majeure partie de la hausse se reflétant dans les rendements réels. Les cours des actions ont d’abord augmenté dans un contexte de résultats du deuxième trimestre qui étaient meilleurs que prévu, mais ont ensuite retracé ces gains en réponse à l’évolution des perspectives de la politique. En ce qui concerne l’évolution internationale, les rendements dans la plupart des économies étrangères avancées (APE) ont également fortement augmenté, un certain nombre d’autres banques centrales ayant relevé leurs taux directeurs et indiqué dans leurs communications qu’elles continueraient probablement à resserrer leur Politique monétaire afin de faire face aux pressions inflationnistes. La valeur d’échange du dollar s’est particulièrement appréciée, atteignant des sommets de plusieurs décennies en termes réels, les acteurs du marché percevant des défis économiques croissants à l’étranger.
La trajectoire implicite du taux des fonds fédéraux a fortement augmenté après que les acteurs du marché ont interprété les communications de la Réserve fédérale – en particulier celles fournies lors du symposium de Jackson Hole – ainsi que les données entrantes, comme indiquant une trajectoire de politique plus restrictive que prévu. Les taux sensibles à la Politique monétaire laissaient entendre qu’une augmentation de 75 points de base de la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux devait être décidée lors de la réunion du Comité en septembre, avec une certaine possibilité d’un mouvement de 100 points de base. En outre, la trajectoire implicite du marché suggérait des probabilités raisonnables d’augmentations de taux supplémentaires de 75 points de base et de 50 points de base lors des réunions de novembre et de décembre, respectivement. Les acteurs du marché s’attendaient généralement à un nouveau ralentissement du rythme des hausses de taux après décembre, le taux directeur ayant atteint son sommet au premier semestre de 2023. Au-delà de cette période, la trajectoire implicite du taux des fonds fédéraux a diminué, reflétant probablement les risques à la baisse qui pèsent sur la trajectoire du taux directeur. Le répondant médian aux enquêtes Open Market Desk s’attendait à ce que la trajectoire du taux directeur reste stable jusqu’en 2023 après que le taux maximal ait été atteint. En moyenne, les répondants à l’enquête Desk ont attribué une probabilité de près de 30% à une baisse du Produit intérieur brut (pib) réel en 2022, soit près du double de la probabilité attribuée dans l’enquête de juillet.
Le directeur pro tem s’est ensuite penché sur une discussion sur la mise en œuvre des politiques. Le ruissellement du bilan s’est poursuivi sans heurts au cours de la période d’interméenciation. Avec le doublement des plafonds de rachat de titres du Trésor et de titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires (MBS) d’agences en septembre, le rythme du ruissellement du bilan devrait augmenter au cours des prochains mois. Les marchés des titres du Trésor et des MBS d’agence ont continué de fonctionner de manière ordonnée, bien que les conditions de liquidité sur les deux marchés soient restées faibles, reflétant une incertitude élevée sur les taux d’intérêt.
Sur les marchés monétaires, l’augmentation de 75 points de base de la fourchette cible lors de la réunion de juillet s’est entièrement répercutée sur les taux au jour le jour. Dans un contexte de forte demande d’investissements à court terme, l’utilisation de l’installation d’accord de prise en pension au jour le jour (ON RRP) a été relativement stable à des niveaux élevés.
Le personnel a continué de s’attendre à ce que l’utilisation du RRP de l’ON diminue au cours des prochains trimestres par rapport à ses niveaux actuellement élevés, à mesure que les participants au marché monétaire réagiraient à l’évolution des conditions. L’émission de titres à court terme était susceptible d’augmenter au cours des périodes à venir et, à mesure que les perspectives économiques et politiques s’éclaircissaient, la demande d’actifs à court terme pourrait ralentir. Ces deux évolutions atténueraient la pression à la baisse sur les rendements des placements sûrs à court terme. La réduction progressive des soldes du RRP on pourrait également être facilitée par la concurrence croissante entre les banques dans la recherche de dépôts. Le directeur a indiqué que le personnel continuerait de suivre de près l’évolution du marché monétaire afin d’évaluer si des frictions apparaissaient dans ce processus.
Le directeur pro tem a conclu par une mise à jour sur les questions opérationnelles. Comme prévu, le bénéfice net de la Réserve fédérale est devenu négatif en septembre. Le personnel s’attendait à ce que la taille de l’actif différé associé augmente au fil du temps jusqu’à ce que le bénéfice net devienne positif, probablement dans quelques années. Le Bureau prévoyait de commencer à agréger les MBS d’agence détenus dans le compte d’open market du système (SOMA) qui ne sont pas admissibles à être mélangés dans le MBS uniforme et, plus précisément, le MBS Freddie Mac qui ont été émis avant juin 2019 et qui ont un retard de paiement de 45 jours; les décisions concernant toute agrégation supplémentaire seraient prises à une date ultérieure.
Par un vote unanime, le Comité a ratifié les transactions nationales du Bureau au cours de la période inter-réunions. Il n’y a pas eu d’opérations d’intervention en devises étrangères pour le compte du Système pendant la période d’interméecement.
Examen de la situation
économique par le personnel Les informations disponibles au moment de la réunion des 20 et 21 septembre suggéraient que le pib réel des États-Unis augmentait à un rythme modeste au troisième trimestre après avoir diminué au cours du premier semestre de l’année. La demande de main-d’œuvre est restée forte et le marché du travail a continué d’être très tendu. Des lectures mensuelles récentes ont indiqué que l’Inflation des prix à la consommation – mesurée par la variation en pourcentage sur 12 mois de l’indice des prix des dépenses de consommation personnelle (ECP) – est demeurée élevée.
L’emploi salarié non agricole total a affiché de solides hausses en juillet et en août à un rythme moyen qui n’était que légèrement inférieur à ce qui a été observé au cours de la première moitié de l’année. Le taux de chômage a légèrement augmenté, sur le net, passant de 3,6% en juin à 3,7% en août. Le taux de chômage des Afro-Américains a augmenté au cours de cette période, tandis que le taux des Hispaniques a légèrement augmenté sur le net; les deux taux étaient sensiblement plus élevés que la moyenne nationale. Le taux d’activité et le ratio emploi-population ont tous deux augmenté, sur le net, de juin à août. Le taux d’offres d’emploi dans le Secteur privé, tel que mesuré par l’Enquête sur les offres d’emploi et le roulement de la main-d’œuvre, a légèrement diminué de mai à juillet, mais est resté à un niveau élevé. La croissance des salaires nominaux a continué d’être rapide et généralisée : la rémunération horaire moyenne a augmenté de 5,2 % au cours de la période de 12 mois se terminant en août, tandis que l’indice du coût de l’emploi de la rémunération horaire dans le Secteur privé, qui comprend également les coûts des avantages sociaux, a augmenté de 5,5 % au cours de la période de 12 mois se terminant en juin, soit 2,4 points de pourcentage de plus que le rythme de l’année précédente.
L’Inflation des prix à la consommation est restée élevée. L’Inflation totale des prix pce pce s’est établie à 6,3 % au cours des 12 mois se terminant en juillet, et l’Inflation des prix pcE de base, qui exclut les variations des prix de l’énergie à la consommation et de nombreux prix des aliments à la consommation, a été de 4,6 % au cours de la même période. La mesure moyenne réduite de l’Inflation des prix PCE sur 12 mois construite par la Federal Reserve Bank de Dallas était de 4,4% en juillet. En août, la variation sur 12 mois de l’indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) était de 8,3 %, tandis que l’Inflation mesurée par l’IPC de base était de 6,3 % au cours de la même période. Les mesures des anticipations d’Inflation à court terme fondées sur des enquêtes ont diminué au cours des dernières semaines, tandis que les mesures des attentes d’Inflation à long terme sont demeurées à peu près stables ou ont baissé.
Les indicateurs de dépenses disponibles, y compris le rapport sur les ventes au détail d’août, suggèrent que l’ECP réel était en voie d’afficher une hausse modeste au troisième trimestre. Cependant, les dernières données sur le marché de l’habitation indiquaient une autre forte contraction de l’investissement résidentiel au troisième trimestre, et l’investissement fixe des entreprises semblait augmenter à un rythme tiède.
Real goods exports stepped up in June and then rose further in July, led by increases in exports of industrial supplies. By contrast, real goods imports stepped down in June and then fell sharply in July, driven by a large decline in consumer goods imports. Exports and imports of services continued to be held back by an incomplete recovery of international travel. The nominal U.S. international trade deficit continued to narrow in June and July. Altogether, net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in the second quarter and appeared on track to make another positive contribution in the third quarter.
Data pointed to weak foreign growth in recent months, weighed down by the global reverberations from Russia's war against Ukraine and a loss of momentum in the Chinese economy. In Europe, further disruptions to the supply of energy exacerbated declines in real disposable incomes and in consumer and business confidence, restraining economic activity. In China, recent indicators suggest only a partial rebound from the effects of earlier severe COVID-19-related lockdowns as well as increasing concerns about the property sector. Weaker growth in China and the broader global economy also weighed on export-oriented emerging market economies in Asia. Consumer price Inflation rose further in August in many foreign economies, reflecting past increases in energy and food prices, but also a continued broadening of inflationary pressure to core prices. With Inflation persistently high, many central banks continued to tighten monetary policy.
Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Over the intermeeting period, U.S. Treasury yields and the market-implied federal funds rate path moved higher. Broad domestic equity price indexes decreased slightly, on balance, but market volatility remained elevated. Credit remained widely available to most types of borrowers, but increases in borrowing costs appeared to damp the demand for credit in some markets in recent months. Measures of current loan performance for businesses and most households remained generally stable. However, more recently, expectations of future credit quality for businesses deteriorated slightly, and delinquency rates rose for some types of credit owed by households with low credit scores.
The expected path of the federal funds rate—implied by a straight read of financial market quotes—rose in the period since the July FOMC meeting, largely reflecting more-restrictive-than-expected monetary policy communications amid stronger-than-expected economic data and ongoing concerns about high Inflation. On net, nominal Treasury yields increased significantly across the maturity spectrum. The increases in nominal Treasury yields were primarily accounted for by rising real yields, while Inflation Compensation measures declined substantially AT short horizons and remained relatively little changed AT medium- and longer-term horizons.
Broad equity price indexes decreased slightly, on net, as substantial early gains arising from investors' improved perceptions about the Inflation outlook and better-than-feared second-quarter earnings were more than offset by later losses arising from expectations that the Committee would follow a more restrictive policy than previously expected. One‑month option-implied volatility on the S&P 500—the vix—increased somewhat, on net, and remained elevated by historical norms, partly reflecting investor uncertainty and risks associated with higher Inflation and the expected move to a restrictive policy stance. Corporate bond spreads narrowed slightly, on net, and remained roughly AT the midpoints of their historical distributions. Reflecting increases in both policy rates and corporate bond spreads, yields on corporate bonds rose significantly since the start of the year. Municipal bond spreads over comparable-maturity Treasury yields widened a touch.
Conditions in short-term funding markets remained stable over the intermeeting period, with the July increase in the Federal Reserve's administered interest rates passing through quickly to other money market rates. Although secured overnight rates firmed slightly later in the intermeeting period, they remained soft relative to the ON RRP offering rate—a configuration that market participants attributed to relatively low Treasury bill supply combined with strong investor demand for short-dated instruments amid uncertainty about the future path of the policy rate. Consistent with continued softness in repurchase agreement rates, daily take-up in the ON RRP facility remained elevated. Spreads on lower-rated short-term commercial paper changed little on net. Bank deposit rates continued to increase modestly in August, following a lagged response to increases in the federal funds rate, while money market mutual funds' net yields rose along with the increases in short-term rates.
Sovereign yields in most AFEs rose notably over the intermeeting period as major central banks raised their policy rates and communicated a tighter stance of future policy in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. Yields on Japanese government securities, however, ended the period little changed, as the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its accommodative monetary policy stance. Measures of foreign Inflation Compensation were volatile amid large swings in European natural gas prices but increased moderately on net. The U.S. dollar appreciated further against most major currencies, reaching multi-decade highs against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The dollar's strength largely reflected increasing investor concerns about the global growth outlook as well as widening interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan. Growth concerns also weighed on foreign equity prices, which declined moderately. Outflows from funds dedicated to emerging markets continued AT a modest pace, and credit spreads in emerging market economies narrowed somewhat on net.
In domestic credit markets, borrowing costs continued to rise over the intermeeting period. Yields on both corporate bonds and institutional leveraged loans increased. Bank interest rates for commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans also increased. Among small businesses that borrow on a regular basis, the share of firms facing higher borrowing costs continued to climb through August. Municipal bond yields increased across ratings categories. Borrowing costs for residential mortgage loans increased and reached their highest levels since 2008. Interest rates on most credit card accounts continued to move higher, in line with the rise in the federal funds rate, and auto loan interest rates rose steadily through August.
Credit remained generally available to businesses and households, but high borrowing costs appeared to reduce the demand for credit, resulting in lower financing volumes in some markets. Issuance of nonfinancial corporate bonds slowed further in July from the weak levels seen in the second quarter but rebounded somewhat in August and so far in September. Gross institutional leveraged loan issuance increased modestly in July from subdued levels but continued to be weak in August. Equity issuance remained depressed, while issuance of municipal bonds was sluggish over the summer and so far in September.
According to the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tightened credit standards on C&I lending for the first time in two years, but C&I loans on banks' balance sheets expanded AT a strong pace in July and August, reflecting strong demand from nonfinancial businesses. CRE loans on banks' balance sheets also continued to grow robustly, but issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) slowed in July from its strong pace earlier in the year. Credit availability to small businesses appeared to be tightening somewhat. The share of small firms reporting that it was more difficult to obtain loans continued its upward trend in August but remained lower than its historical average.
Credit in the residential mortgage market remained available for high-credit-score borrowers. Credit availability for low-credit-score borrowers continued to ease through July but remained modestly tight—close to pre-pandemic averages. However, the volumes of both home-purchase and refinance mortgage originations plunged in July amid rising mortgage rates. Consumer credit remained available to most households in June and July, but about half of the respondents in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that it was harder to obtain credit than it was a year earlier and that they expected it to become even harder over the next year.
The credit quality of nonfinancial corporations remained generally strong, with low default rates for both corporate bonds and leveraged loans. The volume of rating upgrades in the corporate bond market outpaced that of downgrades in July and August, but, so far in September, these relative volumes reversed. The volume of rating downgrades in the leveraged loan market continued to exceed that of upgrades. Credit quality for C&I and CRE loans on banks' balance sheets also remained sound, as delinquency rates remained AT low levels through June. However, banks increased loan loss provisions somewhat in the second quarter. Delinquency rates on CRE loans securitized into CMBS remained unchanged in July, delinquency rates on small business loans stayed quite low after edging up, and the credit quality of municipal securities remained strong.
Household credit quality stayed broadly solid but continued to worsen for some types of credit owed by borrowers with low credit scores. Mortgage delinquencies trended down in recent months, and the share of mortgages in foreclosure remained low in July. By contrast, credit card and auto credit delinquency rates rose over the second quarter, particularly among subprime borrowers, with subprime auto loan delinquency rates rebounding notably to slightly above their historical averages.
Staff Economic Outlook
The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the September FOMC meeting was slightly weaker than the July forecast. However, the staff's estimate of potential output in recent history was revised down significantly in response to continued disappointing productivity growth and the sluggish gains in labor force participation seen so far this year; moreover, this lower trajectory for potential output was expected to persist throughout the forecast period. As a result, the staff's estimate of the output gap was revised up considerably this year, and while the staff projection still had the output gap closing in coming years, the level of output was expected to be slightly above potential AT the end of 2025. Likewise, the unemployment rate was expected to rise more slowly than in the July projection and to be slightly below the staff's estimate of its natural rate AT the end of 2025.
On a 12-month change basis, total PCE price Inflation was expected to be 5.1 percent in 2022, and core Inflation was expected to be 4.3 percent. Although the staff continued to project that core Inflation would step down over the next two years—reflecting the anticipated resolution of supply–demand imbalances and a labor market that was expected to become less tight—core Inflation was revised up in each year of the projection. In 2025, core Inflation was expected to be 2.1 percent. total PCE price Inflation was expected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2023 as core Inflation slowed and energy prices declined. total PCE Inflation was expected to move down further in 2024, to 2 percent, and to remain AT 2 percent in 2025.
The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for real activity were skewed to the downside. In addition to Russia's war in Ukraine, weakening activity abroad, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, the possibility that a persistent reduction in Inflation could require a greater-than-assumed amount of tightening in financial conditions was viewed by the staff as a salient downside risk to their forecast for real activity. The staff viewed the risks to the Inflation projection as skewed to the upside on the grounds that supply conditions might not improve as much as expected and energy prices might rise sharply again. The staff also pointed to the possibility that wage increases could put a greater-than-expected amount of upward pressure on price Inflation and the possibility that Inflation expectations could become unanchored given the large rise in Inflation seen over the past year as additional upside risks to the Inflation forecast.
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and Inflation for each year from 2022 through 2025 and over the longer run, based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate. The longer-run projections represented each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. A Summary of Economic Projections was released to the public following the conclusion of the meeting.
In their discussion of current economic conditions, participants noted that recent indicators had pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Participants recognized that Russia's war against Ukraine was causing tremendous human and economic hardship. Participants judged that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on Inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. Against this background, participants remained highly attentive to Inflation risks.
With regard to the economic outlook, participants noted that recent data pointed to modest growth in economic activity over the second half of this year. Participants observed that recent indicators of consumer spending and business investment suggested modest increases in those spending categories but noted that activity in interest-sensitive sectors weakened appreciably. Participants revised down their projections of real GDP growth for this year from their projections in June. Several participants noted that the continued strength in the labor market, as well as the data on gross domestic income, raised the possibility that the current GDP data could understate the strength in economic activity this year. Participants generally anticipated that the U.S. economy would grow AT a below-trend pace in this and the coming few years, with the labor market becoming less tight, as monetary policy assumed a restrictive stance and global headwinds persisted. Participants noted that a period of below-trend real GDP growth would help reduce inflationary pressures and set the stage for the sustained achievement of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
In their discussion of the household sector, participants noted that consumer spending grew moderately, reflecting strength in the labor market, the elevated level of household savings accumulated during the pandemic, and a strong aggregate household-sector balance sheet. Several participants noted that spending appeared to have held up relatively well, especially among higher-income households. These participants also noted that the composition of spending by low-to-moderate-income households—who were affected to a greater degree by high food, energy, and shelter prices—was changing, with discretionary expenditures being cut and purchases shifting to lower-cost options. Participants observed that the notable slowdown in residential investment and other interest-sensitive spending had continued, reflecting the effect of the Committee's monetary policy actions and tighter financial conditions.
With regard to the business sector, participants observed that growth in investment spending appeared modest. Several participants mentioned that manufacturing activity had slowed. A couple of participants noted that businesses were constrained in undertaking new capital projects, as they faced higher financing costs, persistent challenges associated with supply bottlenecks, and hiring difficulties resulting from the continued tightness of the labor market.
Participants discussed how they perceived challenging supply conditions to be evolving. Many participants remarked that their business contacts were reporting signs of relief in supply bottlenecks, such as declines in shipping costs and delivery times and rising inventories, while several participants saw little improvement in the supply situation. Participants saw supply bottlenecks as likely continuing for a while longer, and a couple commented that constraints on production were increasingly taking the form of labor shortages rather than parts shortages.
Participants observed that the labor market had remained very tight, as evidenced by a historically low unemployment rate, elevated job vacancies and quit rates, a low pace of layoffs, robust employment gains, and high nominal wage growth. A few participants remarked that employers facing particularly acute labor shortages were those associated with professional occupations, service industries, skilled trades, and smaller firms. Some participants noted a number of developments consistent with the labor market moving toward better balance, including a lower rate of job turnover, a moderation in employment growth, and an increase in the labor force participation rate for prime-age workers. However, several participants assessed that the scope for further improvement in labor force participation was likely limited, especially in view of the sizable contribution that retirements had made to the previous decline in the participation rate.
Participants anticipated that the supply and demand imbalances in the labor market would gradually diminish and the unemployment rate would likely rise somewhat, importantly reflecting the effects of tighter monetary policy. Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices. Participants expected that the transition toward a softer labor market would be accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate. Several commented that they considered it likely that the transition would occur primarily through reduced job vacancies and slower job creation. A couple of participants remarked that, in light of challenges in hiring, businesses might be less willing to reduce their staffing levels in the event of a weakening in general economic activity. A few participants particularly stressed the high uncertainty associated with the expected future path of the unemployment rate and commented that the unemployment rate could rise by considerably more than in the staff forecast.
Participants observed that Inflation remained unacceptably high and well above the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent. Participants commented that recent Inflation data generally had come in above expectations and that, correspondingly, Inflation was declining more slowly than they had previously been anticipating. Price pressures had remained elevated and had persisted across a broad array of product categories. Energy prices had declined in recent months but remained considerably higher than in 2021, and upside risks to energy prices remained. Several participants noted the continued elevated rates of increase in core goods prices. These participants considered this development as potentially indicating that the shift of household spending from goods to services might be having a smaller effect on goods prices than they expected or that the supply bottlenecks and labor shortages were taking longer to be resolved. Participants commented that they expected Inflation pressures to persist in the near term. Numerous contributing factors were cited as supporting this view, including labor market tightness and the resulting upward pressure on nominal wages, continuing supply chain disruptions, and the persistent nature of increases in services prices, particularly shelter prices.
With respect to the medium term, participants judged that Inflation pressures would gradually recede in coming years. Various factors were cited as likely to contribute to this outcome, including the Committee's tightening of its policy stance, a gradual easing of supply and demand imbalances in labor and product markets, and the likelihood that weaker consumer demand would result in a reduction of business profit margins from their current elevated levels. A few participants reported that business contacts in certain retail sectors—such as used cars and apparel—were planning to cut prices in order to help reduce their inventories. Several participants commented that while households across the income distribution were burdened by elevated Inflation, those AT the lower end of the income distribution were particularly harmed, as a larger share of their income was spent on housing and other necessities.
In assessing Inflation expectations, participants noted that longer-term expectations appeared to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters as well as measures obtained from financial markets. Participants remarked that the Committee's affirmation of its strong commitment to its price-stability objective, together with its forceful policy actions, had likely helped keep longer-run Inflation expectations anchored. Some stressed that a more prolonged period of elevated Inflation would increase the risk of Inflation expectations becoming unanchored, making it much more costly to bring Inflation down. A few participants discussed the increased dispersion of longer-term Inflation expectations across respondents in various surveys, with an increase in the number of respondents reporting relatively low expectations of future Inflation acknowledged as a key driver of the increased dispersion but with a couple of participants citing higher Inflation expectations among some survey respondents as a cause for concern and a reason not to be complacent about longer-term Inflation expectations remaining well anchored.
Participants agreed that the uncertainty associated with their economic outlooks was high and that risks to their Inflation outlook were weighted to the upside. Some participants noted rising labor tensions, a new round of global energy price increases, further disruptions in supply chains, and a larger-than-expected pass-through of wage increases into price increases as potential shocks that, if they materialized, could compound an already challenging Inflation problem. A number of participants commented that a wage–price spiral had not yet developed but cited its possible emergence as a risk.
Participants broadly judged the risks to real GDP growth to be weighted to the downside, with various global headwinds most prominently cited as contributing factors. These global headwinds included heightened risk of recession in Europe, a slowdown in economic activity occurring in China, and the ongoing global economic implications of Russia's war against Ukraine. Several participants noted that the monetary policy tightening under way in many other economies would affect global financial markets and foreign real GDP growth, with the potential for spillovers to the U.S. economy.
In their consideration of the appropriate stance of monetary policy, participants concurred that the labor market was very tight and that Inflation was far above the Committee's 2 percent Inflation objective. Participants observed that recent indicators of production and spending had pointed to modest growth, while job gains had been robust and the unemployment rate had remained low. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 75 basis points AT this meeting and to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that the Committee issued in May. Policymakers observed that the rate hike AT this meeting was another step toward making the Committee's monetary policy stance sufficiently restrictive to help ease supply and demand imbalances and to bring Inflation back to 2 percent. Participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning Inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective, with many stressing the importance of staying on this course even as the labor market slowed.
In discussing potential policy actions AT upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. Participants judged that the Committee needed to move to, and then maintain, a more restrictive policy stance in order to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Many participants noted that, with Inflation well above the Committee's 2 percent objective and showing little sign so far of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy continuing, they had raised their assessment of the path of the federal funds rate that would likely be needed to achieve the Committee's goals. Participants judged that the pace and extent of policy rate increases would continue to depend on the implications of incoming information for the outlook for economic activity and Inflation and on risks to the outlook. Several participants noted that, particularly in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, it would be important to calibrate the pace of further policy tightening with the aim of mitigating the risk of significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. Participants observed that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it would become appropriate AT some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and Inflation. Many participants indicated that, once the policy rate had reached a sufficiently restrictive level, it likely would be appropriate to maintain that level for some time until there was compelling evidence that Inflation was on course to return to the 2 percent objective. Participants noted that, in keeping with the Committee's Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, balance sheet runoff had moved up to its maximum planned pace in September and would continue AT that pace. They further observed that a significant reduction in the Committee's holdings of securities was in progress and that this process was contributing to the move to a restrictive policy stance. A couple of participants remarked that, after the process of balance sheet reduction was well under way, it would be appropriate for the Committee to consider sales of agency MBS in order to enable suitable progress toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composed primarily of Treasury securities.
In their assessment of the effects of policy actions and communications to date, participants concurred that the Committee's actions to raise expeditiously the target range for the federal funds rate demonstrated its resolve to lower Inflation to 2 percent and to keep Inflation expectations anchored AT levels consistent with that longer-run goal. Participants noted that the Committee's commitment to restoring price stability, together with its purposeful policy actions and communications, had contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions over the past year that would likely help reduce Inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand. Participants observed that this tightening had led to substantial increases in real interest rates across the maturity spectrum. Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. They noted also that Inflation had not yet responded appreciably to policy tightening and that a significant reduction in Inflation would likely lag that of aggregate demand. Participants observed that a period of real GDP growth below its trend rate, very likely accompanied by some softening in labor market conditions, was required. They agreed that, by moving its policy purposefully toward an appropriately restrictive stance, the Committee would help ensure that elevated Inflation did not become entrenched and that Inflation expectations did not become unanchored. These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high Inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.
In light of the broad-based and unacceptably high level of Inflation, the intermeeting news of higher-than-expected Inflation, and upside risks to the Inflation outlook, participants remarked that purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down Inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down Inflation. Several participants observed that as policy moved into restrictive territory, risks would become more two-sided, reflecting the emergence of the downside risk that the cumulative restraint in aggregate demand would exceed what was required to bring Inflation back to 2 percent. A few of these participants noted that this possibility was heightened by factors beyond the Committee's actions, including the tightening of monetary policy stances abroad and the weakening global economic outlook, that were also likely to restrain domestic economic activity in the period ahead.
Committee Policy Action
In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that recent indicators had pointed to modest growth in spending and production. Members also concurred that job gains had been robust in recent months and the unemployment rate had remained low. Members agreed that Inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.
Members observed that Russia's war against Ukraine was causing tremendous human and economic hardship. They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on Inflation and were weighing on global economic activity. Members remarked that they remained highly attentive to Inflation risks.
In their assessment of the monetary policy stance necessary for achieving the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipated that ongoing increases in the target range would be appropriate. In addition, members agreed that the Committee would continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency MBS, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet issued in May.
Members agreed that, in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, they would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and that they would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerged that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. They also noted that their assessments would take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, Inflation pressures and Inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Members affirmed that the Committee was strongly committed to returning Inflation to its 2 percent objective.
AT the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release AT 2:00 p.m.:
"Effective September 22, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:
Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3 to 3-1/4 percent.
Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum Bid rate of 3.25 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased AT the discretion of the Chair.
Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations AT an offering rate of 3.05 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased AT the discretion of the Chair.
roll over AT auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
Réinvestissez dans les titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires (MBS) d’agence le montant des paiements de capital provenant des avoirs de la Réserve fédérale en dette d’agence et MBS d’agence reçus au cours de chaque mois civil qui dépasse un plafond de 35 milliards de dollars par mois.
Permettre des écarts modestes par rapport aux montants déclarés pour les réinvestissements, si nécessaire pour des raisons opérationnelles.
S’engager dans des transactions de swap de dollars et de coupons si nécessaire pour faciliter le règlement des transactions MBS de l’agence de la Réserve fédérale.
Le vote a également porté sur l’approbation de la déclaration ci-dessous pour publication à 14 h 00 :
« Les indicateurs récents indiquent une croissance modeste des dépenses et de la production. Les gains d’emplois ont été robustes au cours des derniers mois, et le taux de chômage est demeuré faible. L’Inflation reste élevée, reflétant les déséquilibres de l’offre et de la demande liés à la pandémie, la hausse des prix des aliments et de l’énergie et les pressions plus larges sur les prix.
La guerre de la Russie contre l’Ukraine cause d’énormes difficultés humaines et économiques. La guerre et les événements connexes créent une pression à la hausse supplémentaire sur l’Inflation et pèsent sur l’activité économique mondiale. Le Comité est très attentif aux risques d’Inflation.
Le Comité cherche à atteindre un taux d’emploi et d’Inflation maximal de 2 % à long terme. À l’appui de ces objectifs, le Comité a décidé de relever la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux à 3 à 3-1/4 % et prévoit que des augmentations continues de la fourchette cible seront appropriées. En outre, le Comité continuera de réduire ses avoirs en titres du Trésor et en titres de créance d’agence et en titres adossés à des créances hypothécaires d’agence, comme décrit dans les Plans de réduction de la taille du bilan de la Réserve fédérale qui ont été publiés en mai. Le Comité est fermement résolu à ramener l’Inflation à son objectif de 2 %.
Lorsqu’il évaluera l’orientation appropriée de la Politique monétaire, le Comité continuera de surveiller les répercussions des informations reçues sur les perspectives économiques. Le Comité serait prêt à ajuster l’orientation de la Politique monétaire selon qu’il conviendrait si des risques surgissent qui pourraient entraver la réalisation des objectifs du Comité. Les évaluations du Comité tiendront compte d’un large éventail d’informations, y compris des lectures sur la santé publique, les conditions du marché du travail, les pressions inflationnistes et les attentes d’Inflation, ainsi que les développements financiers et internationaux.
Vote en faveur de cette action : Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, Esther L. George, Philip N. Jefferson, Loretta J. Mester et Christopher J. Waller.
Vote contre cette action: Aucun.
Pour appuyer la décision du Comité de relever la fourchette cible du taux des fonds fédéraux, le Conseil des gouverneurs de la Réserve fédérale a voté à l’unanimité en faveur d’une augmentation du taux d’intérêt payé sur les soldes des réserves à 3,15 %, à compter du 22 septembre 2022. Le Conseil des gouverneurs de la Réserve fédérale a voté à l’unanimité pour approuver une augmentation de 3/4 de point de pourcentage du taux de crédit primaire à 3,25%, à compter du 22 septembre 2022.6
Il a été convenu que la prochaine réunion du Comité se tiendra du mardi 1er au mercredi 2 novembre 2022. La séance est levée à 10 h 20 le 21 septembre 2022.
Vote
de notation Par vote de notation complété le 16 août 2022, le Comité a approuvé à l’unanimité le procès-verbal de la réunion du Comité tenue du 26 au 27 juillet 2022.
Oui maru je vais m'auto flageller !
ci joint le rapport du FOMC pour ceux qui ont 30min devant eux
- lskr sacré travail d’archivage !
Avec ça, tu peux sortir des stats et des probas, genre :
Si 3 rouges, alors x% de proba que ça fasse +/- de points…etc
C’est pas très propre comme méthode comparé à certains mais ça peu être intéressant !
Avec ça, tu peux sortir des stats et des probas, genre :
Si 3 rouges, alors x% de proba que ça fasse +/- de points…etc
C’est pas très propre comme méthode comparé à certains mais ça peu être intéressant !
Il a du retard le nasdaq il faut qu’il accélère
Kimo du retard sur quoi ?
Sacré boulot en effet Iskr, j'espère que tu parviens à en tirer profit car tout travail mérite salaire 
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